Moderna Inc

Moderna Inc (MRNA) Stock Analysis

$226.890

+9.234 (+4.07%)At close

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High
236.770
Open
217.270
VWAP
226.55
Volume
18.79M
Mkt Cap
46.44B
Low
216.000
Amount
4.26B
EV/EBITDA, TTM
-6.48

Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company advancing a new class of medicines made of messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA). It is engaged in developing medicines across infectious disease vaccines, oncology therapeutics and rare disease therapeutics. Its platform incorporates advances across three components, mRNA, delivery, and the manufacturing process, to advance its medicines. Its products are Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE (its COVID vaccines), and mRESVIA (its vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)). It also has a diverse development pipeline that consists of 35 therapeutic and vaccine programs, six of which are in late-stage development. It has regulatory filings under review for its seasonal flu+COVID vaccine (mRNA-1083) in Europe and Canada and for its seasonal flu vaccine (mRNA-1010) in the United States, Europe, Canada and Australia. Its rare disease programs are Propionic acidemia (mRNA-3927); Methylmalonic acidemia (mRNA-3705), and Cystic Fibrosis (mRNA-3692/VX-522).

AI analysis of Moderna Inc (MRNA)

Hold

Moderna Inc is currently not a strong buy at $218.01 due to mixed analyst ratings and significant recent volatility. The RSI is at 55.19, indicating a neutral momentum, while the stock has experienced a 3.11% decline over the past five days. The forward P/E ratio is 23.04, suggesting that the stock may be overvalued compared to earnings expectations. The main risk is the hedge fund selling activity, which has increased by 437.15% over the last quarter, indicating a bearish sentiment among institutional investors.

Valuation Metrics

The current forward P/E ratio for Moderna Inc (MRNA) is 23.04, compared to its 5-year average forward P/E of 0.68.

Forward P/E

Overvalued
5Y Average P/E
0.68
Current P/E
23.04
Overvalued
16.60
Undervalued
-15.24

Forward EV/EBITDA

Fair
5Y Average EV/EBITDA
-3.98
Current EV/EBITDA
-6.48
Overvalued
4.97
Undervalued
-12.94

Forward P/S

Strongly Overvalued
5Y Average P/S
7.62
Current P/S
35.69
Overvalued
12.37
Undervalued
2.87

Alphio AI Price Scenarios for MRNA

Scenario prices are the last monthly forecast band of the current year. Probabilities are fixed model weights (25 / 50 / 25), not guarantees.

B

Bull

Bull · 25%MRNA

$20.51

Scenario price

B

Base

Base · 50%MRNA

$15.53

Scenario price

B

Bear

Bear · 25%MRNA

$11.20

Scenario price

Whales holding MRNA

B

Banque Pictet & Cie SA

+ HoldingMRNA

+12.93%

3M Return

B

Baron Capital Group, Inc.

+ HoldingMRNA

+5.50%

3M Return

S

Simplex Trading, LLC

+ HoldingMRNA

-0.11%

3M Return

F

Fondsmæglerselskabet Maj Invest A/S

+ HoldingMRNA

-0.45%

3M Return

C

Casdin Capital, LLC

+ HoldingMRNA

-4.73%

3M Return

T

Tang Capital Management, LLC

+ HoldingMRNA

-5.89%

3M Return

Events Timeline

2026-10-09 (ET)

16:30:00

Trump Says U.S. Will Not Strike Iran, Oil Pulls Back

10:00:00

Humana and Others See Notable Gains in Options Trading

2026-10-07 (ET)

16:30:00

Major Averages Decline After Fed Meeting Minutes Release

12:30:00

Major Averages Broadly Lower as 10-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 5.356%

News

MRNA FAQ — answered by Alphio AI

Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company advancing a new class of medicines made of messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA). It is engaged in developing medicines across infectious disease vaccines, oncology therapeutics and rare disease therapeutics. Its platform incorporates advances across three components, mRNA, delivery, and the manufacturing process, to advance its medicines. Its products are Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE (its COVID vaccines), and mRESVIA (its vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)). It also has a diverse development pipeline that consists of 35 therapeutic and vaccine programs, six of which are in late-stage development. It has regulatory filings under review for its seasonal flu+COVID vaccine (mRNA-1083) in Europe and Canada and for its seasonal flu vaccine (mRNA-1010) in the United States, Europe, Canada and Australia. Its rare disease programs are Propionic acidemia (mRNA-3927); Methylmalonic acidemia (mRNA-3705), and Cystic Fibrosis (mRNA-3692/VX-522). It operates in the Healthcare sector (BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES) industry).

Moderna Inc is currently not a strong buy at $218.01 due to mixed analyst ratings and significant recent volatility. The RSI is at 55.19, indicating a neutral momentum, while the stock has experienced a 3.11% decline over the past five days. The forward P/E ratio is 23.04, suggesting that the stock may be overvalued compared to earnings expectations. The main risk is the hedge fund selling activity, which has increased by 437.15% over the last quarter, indicating a bearish sentiment among institutional investors.

Community

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CobaltFarmer2 hr. ago

OpenAI bought an AI drug company, but not the part that designs molecules OpenAI acquired Orchestra Bio and folded it into its own life sciences project, Rosalind. This company doesn't touch molecule generation; what it does looks quite traditional: using AI agents to help drugmakers track trial scheduling and clinical progress, and coordinate manufacturing delays. The official announcement says: a new drug still takes an average of 10 to 15 years. When large model companies enter pharma, the first thing they take on isn't science, it's operations. 1. Who's on the team CEO Ashoka Rajendra, former head of development and manufacturing products at Benchling. - Benchling is a leader in biopharma R&D software, valued at $6.1 billion in its 2021 Series F, and officially says more than 1,300 biotech companies use it, including Merck, Moderna, and Sanofi, to record experiments, manage samples, and handle data. - He built exactly the software for the stretch where a drug goes from the lab to manufacturing. He sees most clearly where pharma companies break down and where they leak money. CTO Andy Xu, former VP of engineering at Numenta. - Numenta was founded in 2005 by Palm founder Jeff Hawkins, starting from brain science and doing AI, later focusing on making model inference faster and cheaper, officially claiming it can speed up inference by more than 10 to 100 times. - Scheduling and dispatch work runs a huge amount of inference every day; if costs can't be pushed down, it's unaffordable. One understands pharma workflows, the other understands running systems cheaply. 2. The bottleneck isn't the algorithm Molecular design has been buzzing for years, and everyone thought AI could quickly compute new drugs. But after computing them out, synthesis, animal testing, and Phase III trials can't be skipped. Trial and error in the physical world can't be replaced by algorithms. 3. Science sets the ceiling, grunt work decides survival A lot of new drug R&D time is spent on internal friction: disconnected communication between departments, scheduling delays at outsourced research organizations, and gaps when scaling up production. Straightening out this information gap between discovery and clinical trials is something agents can turn into real savings right now. I think what OpenAI wants from this investment is also an entry point and data. Tools that only run molecular models struggle to get into pharma companies' core decisions; once it takes over clinical and manufacturing scheduling, the data from pharma companies' real daily workflows passes through it. 4. Chew through the messy process work first, then aim for the scientific holy grail. Molecular design sells a lottery ticket ten-plus years out. Process coordination sells tomorrow's cash ledger. Everyone thought large models would enter pharma as Einstein first, but it turns out they went in as project managers first.

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pumpnonce23 hr. ago

$MRNA is bouncing from daily support. If it breaks above $237.86, I think it can enter price discovery and move higher. @ShaneStoffer is going to be super wealthy.

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molten_vortex2 days ago

There is still some time for some names ahead of the $MRNA presentation on Saturday... People will FOMO into these personalized treatment names — not if, but when. $TEM is one of them.

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patienteddy5 days ago

$MRNA +667% YTD. From our "2026: Outlook and Convictions" edition in January: "MRNA fits as a rebuild candidate because it captures the essence of what these cycles look like at the single-name level. The early part of a recovery is often noisy and headline-sensitive. The later part is more important: the point where the chart begins acting less like a bounce vehicle and more like a position-building environment. In a year where biotech improves, names like MRNA can become a leadership proxy because they tend to reflect whether the market is willing to carry speculative health exposure beyond a short window."

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This page is for research only and is not investment advice. Models can be wrong. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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