Novavax Inc

Novavax Inc (NVAX) Stock Analysis

$12.820

+0.182 (+1.42%)At close

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High
13.250
Open
12.500
VWAP
12.76
Volume
7.35M
Mkt Cap
1.89B
Low
12.200
Amount
93.82M
EV/EBITDA, TTM
-9.00

Novavax, Inc. is a biotechnology company. It is focused on addressing global health challenges through its vaccines and its proven technology platform, including protein-based nanoparticles and its Matrix-M adjuvant. Matrix-M can be used to create vaccines for a variety of diseases to help tackle some of the pressing health challenges. Its proprietary Matrix-M adjuvant, when added to vaccines, has been shown to help induce a stronger and longer-lasting immune response. Its recombinant protein-based nanoparticle technology has been shown to be highly immunogenetic. Its technology platform is used in its authorized COVID-19 vaccine and the R21/Matrix-M adjuvant malaria vaccine. Its late-stage programs include a COVID-19-Influenzavaccine candidate, and an influenza vaccine candidate. R21/Matrix-M adjuvant malaria vaccine, a malaria vaccine developed by its partner. It provides Matrix-M adjuvant for use in various programs in preclinical and clinical stage, and preclinical investigations.

AI analysis of Novavax Inc (NVAX)

Buy

Novavax Inc is a good buy right now due to its recent price increase of 21.89% over the last 5 days and a current price of $12.75, which is significantly above its 200-day simple moving average of $9.015. The stock's RSI is at 71.683, indicating strong momentum, while the forward P/E ratio is an attractive 2.58, suggesting potential for future earnings growth. However, the main risk is its negative net income margin of -94.16% in Q2 2026, which highlights ongoing profitability challenges.

Analyst Ratings (7)

-18.10% Downside
Hold
2 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 12.82
Low
6.00
Average
10.50
High
18.00

BofA

2026-10-09

Price Target

$8

Underperform

TD Cowen

2026-05-06

Price Target

$9

Hold

B. Riley

2026-04-09

Price Target

$18

Buy

BofA

2026-02-27

Price Target

$8

Underperform

H.C. Wainwright

2026-02-27

Price Target

$16

Buy

Valuation Metrics

The current forward P/E ratio for Novavax Inc (NVAX) is 2.58, compared to its 5-year average forward P/E of -3.89.

Forward P/E

Fair
5Y Average P/E
-3.89
Current P/E
2.58
Overvalued
11.51
Undervalued
-19.28

Forward EV/EBITDA

Fair
5Y Average EV/EBITDA
5.77
Current EV/EBITDA
-9.00
Overvalued
119.75
Undervalued
-108.20

Forward P/S

Strongly Overvalued
5Y Average P/S
2.64
Current P/S
7.16
Overvalued
4.56
Undervalued
0.72

Alphio AI Price Scenarios for NVAX

Scenario prices are the last monthly forecast band of the current year. Probabilities are fixed model weights (25 / 50 / 25), not guarantees.

B

Bull

Bull · 25%NVAX

$12.67

Scenario price

B

Base

Base · 50%NVAX

$10.95

Scenario price

B

Bear

Bear · 25%NVAX

$4.06

Scenario price

Whales holding NVAX

C

Coatue Management

+ HoldingNVAX

+0.42%

3M Return

Events Timeline

2026-08-28 (ET)

09:00:00

Novavax Secures Approval for Nuvaxovid Targeting SARS-CoV-2 XFG Variant

2026-08-11 (ET)

10:00:00

Trump Signs Vaccine Executive Order Impacting Multiple Companies

2026-08-07 (ET)

10:00:00

Trump Signs Executive Order to Protect Polysilicon Industry

News

NVAX FAQ — answered by Alphio AI

Novavax, Inc. is a biotechnology company. It is focused on addressing global health challenges through its vaccines and its proven technology platform, including protein-based nanoparticles and its Matrix-M adjuvant. Matrix-M can be used to create vaccines for a variety of diseases to help tackle some of the pressing health challenges. Its proprietary Matrix-M adjuvant, when added to vaccines, has been shown to help induce a stronger and longer-lasting immune response. Its recombinant protein-based nanoparticle technology has been shown to be highly immunogenetic. Its technology platform is used in its authorized COVID-19 vaccine and the R21/Matrix-M adjuvant malaria vaccine. Its late-stage programs include a COVID-19-Influenzavaccine candidate, and an influenza vaccine candidate. R21/Matrix-M adjuvant malaria vaccine, a malaria vaccine developed by its partner. It provides Matrix-M adjuvant for use in various programs in preclinical and clinical stage, and preclinical investigations. It operates in the Healthcare sector (BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES) industry).

Novavax Inc is a good buy right now due to its recent price increase of 21.89% over the last 5 days and a current price of $12.75, which is significantly above its 200-day simple moving average of $9.015. The stock's RSI is at 71.683, indicating strong momentum, while the forward P/E ratio is an attractive 2.58, suggesting potential for future earnings growth. However, the main risk is its negative net income margin of -94.16% in Q2 2026, which highlights ongoing profitability challenges.

7 analysts cover NVAX: 2 rate it Buy, 5 Hold and 0 Sell. The average price target is 10.50.

Community

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dawn_badger5 days ago

$NVAX The week ultimately closed with a fantastic weekly candle. You can see the nearest resistance levels on the chart. I am including the quarterly SMA20 because it is a key target to reach (it's a pity that it is in freefall, blame the math). Keep an eye on that weekly stochastic over the coming weeks. It looks good for now; let's hope it stays that way. GLTA (Warning: If you don't have a position here at this point, don't start one)

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dawn_badger10/6/2026

$NVAX Early weekly chart just to show how the week started ... but what really matters is how the week ends. Three things: - The quarterly SMA20 that I mentioned in the prior post is now around 14.3x. - 61.80% fibo retracement was reached ( $13.14 ) - If we want a serious technical move this beast should respect any re-test of the long term resistance recently broken by turning it into support. Otherwise this would be another pump and dump. See you on weekend...

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dawn_badger10/6/2026

$NVAX That short-term hypothesis was overruled, of course. For what it's worth, the daily RSI is in overbought territory and at its highest level in the last 2 years. If you want this sharp price action to keep going up, then the RSI needs to go wild from here (like in May-June 2024). Good luck to all.

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$NVAX Novavax, the maker of a protein-based COVID-19 vaccine, rose Monday as traders circulated claims of a Russian plague outbreak. A lab leak in Siberia sent one technician to the hospital last week, where she died from undetermined pneumonia. The numbers behind the move and what the market has to price next:

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This page is for research only and is not investment advice. Models can be wrong. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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