Aktienanalyse zu Western Digital Corp (WDC)WDCWestern Digital Corp

$SNDK consensus EPS is around $46.2, already above the upper end of the company's $44 to $46 guidance range, yet the stock has slid from its 52-week high of $2,354.39 on June 22 to $1,238.03, a drawdown of about 47%. Earnings estimates keep getting revised higher, while the stock is already being priced on a cycle-top logic. $MU $WDC STX SKHY First, the schedule: results are due after the close on October 29 Eastern Time, with the call at 4:30pm EDT, which is 4:30am Beijing time on October 30. AMZN and INTC also report the same evening. Now the numbers. Fiscal 2027 Q1 guidance: revenue of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, non-GAAP gross margin of 83% to 85%, non-GAAP EPS of $44 to $46. Consensus expects revenue of about $10.6 billion to $10.7 billion and EPS of about $46.2 to $46.9, while the Earnings Whispers whisper number is $49.13. Revenue in the same period last year was $2.31 billion, with EPS of $1.22. Last quarter the company guided EPS to $30 to $33 and actually delivered $39.25. Let me draw the business boundaries clearly. $SNDK only does NAND and SSD, does not produce HBM and does not touch DRAM; $WDC and STX sell HDDs. $WDC's price per TB rose 28% last quarter and HDD lead times are very long, but I wrote on October 24 that you cannot infer the whole NAND and DRAM industry will rise in sync just because $WDC's HDD prices are rising. On October 23, $MU rose while $SNDK fell, which shows capital is already pricing them separately. Four things to watch this time. First, the relationship between price and shipments. Last quarter revenue grew 51% quarter over quarter, about two-thirds from price increases and one-third from shipment volume. TrendForce expects NAND contract prices to rise 15% to 20% quarter over quarter in Q4, with enterprise SSD up 23% to 28%, but PC makers are cutting SSD capacity configurations, and it is very difficult for enterprise SSD to negotiate increases above 30%. Last quarter edge business revenue was $5.432 billion, larger than the $2.977 billion from data centers, so if the consumer side weakens, it will show up here first. Second, long-term agreements. Remaining performance obligations were $59.8 billion at the end of last quarter, rising to $91.1 billion with two new agreements signed afterward, plus $16.5 billion in financial guarantees. I wrote on October 22 that holding long-term contracts does not mean fully escaping the memory cycle. This time we need to see whether contract amounts can continue to increase. Third, gross margin. Last quarter was 84.6%, guidance is 83% to 85%, and management's long-term model for fiscal 2028 to 2030 is about 80%. The midpoint of guidance is already slightly below last quarter, and the market wants to see whether it can be held rather than pushed higher. Fourth, supply. In August, SanDisk and Kioxia announced more than $31 billion of investment in Japan through 2032. I wrote in my October 25 SanDisk analysis that for investors this is both a long-term growth opportunity and an important variable for future supply expansion. How management describes 2027 industry bit supply is something to listen for clearly this time. On valuation, based on $1,238.03 and fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of $70.88, the trailing P/E is about 17.5x; based on the fiscal 2027 consensus of about $217, the forward P/E is just over 5x. I also noted in the October 25 piece that cyclical companies often look especially cheap on P/E at earnings peaks. Now the stock's position. It fell 8.51% in a single day on October 22, hit an intraday low of $1,228.89 on October 23, and is down about 29% over the past 20 trading days. Technically, I am watching whether $1,200 to $1,230 can form support, and above that the stock needs to reclaim the $1,300 and $1,370 areas before the downtrend can gradually improve. If $1,200 does not hold, even good guidance just adds one more piece of evidence to cycle-top concerns; reclaiming $1,300 would show capital is starting to reprice the long-term agreements. Risk note: the above is only personal market observation and opinion sharing, not investment advice. Crypto assets and stock contracts are highly volatile, so please manage risk carefully.

#EarningsSeason #USStockEarnings Revenue rose 55%, EPS came in at $4.64 (consensus was 4.09), and next-quarter guidance also came in above expectations. With results like that, where do you think the stock went? The answer is down. $WDC fell 6.4% in yesterday's regular session first, and dropped another five or six points after hours once the earnings came out. I see two reasons: first, AI-related stocks were already being sold off that same day; second, management mentioned rising costs and higher capital spending, and the good news had already been priced in beforehand. Binance's WDC perpetual contract touched a low of 322.5 overnight and has now recovered to around 351. I'm watching two levels: if 322 breaks again, it means the panic isn't over; if it reclaims 375, that's when it can finally catch its breath. That's how the storage names (including $SNDK) look right now — no matter how good the numbers are, it still comes down to whether people are willing to pay this price. Do you think "good earnings but a drop" is a buying opportunity, or does it mean the stock had already run up too much? Personal view, not advice.

$WDC reported Q1 EPS of 4.64 and revenue of 4,381.

$WDC Q1 '27 Earnings Results & Recap • Reported GAAP EPS of $4.64, up 160.67% YoY • Reported revenue of $4.38B, up 55.46% YoY • Western Digital expects Q2FY27 revenue of $5.1B +/- $100M, non-GAAP gross margin of 60%–61%, and diluted net income per common share of $5.80 +/- $0.20.

$WDC reports Q1/FY2027 earnings on October 22nd. WS analysts expect earnings per share of $4.08 on revenue of $4.14B.