
2027 Women's College Basketball National Champion
核心摘要
根據「2027 Women's College Basketball National Champion」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前,Baylor 以壓倒性的 4,950% 獲勝機率主導市場;Duke 以 4,950% 位居第二,Iowa 以 4,950% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —,反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:
🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者
- Baylor (4,950%):Baylor 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,950¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。
🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者
- Duke (4,950%):作為最可行的替代選項,Duke 保持著 4,950% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,950¢。
- Iowa (4,950%):以 4,950% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Iowa 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)
在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:
- 替代選項:包括 Louisville (4,950%)、LSU (4,950%),以及 Maryland (4,950%)。
- 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Michigan 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes(成本) | 買入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baylor | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 2 | Duke | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 3 | Iowa | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 4 | Louisville | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 5 | LSU | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 6 | Maryland | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 7 | Michigan | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 8 | Minnesota | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 9 | Ole Miss | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 10 | North Carolina | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 11 | NC State | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 12 | Notre Dame | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 13 | Nebraska | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 14 | Ohio State | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 15 | Oklahoma | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 16 | Oregon | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 17 | South Carolina | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 18 | TCU | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 19 | Texas | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 20 | Texas Tech | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 21 | UCLA | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 22 | UConn | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 23 | Kentucky | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 24 | USC | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 25 | Washington | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Tournament (the national champion).
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2027 tournament (e.g., they are eliminated or fail to qualify), the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
If the 2027 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no champion declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the NCAA (https://www.ncaa.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
常見問題
目前市場對「2027 Women's College Basketball National Champion」的共識是什麼?
截至最新更新,Baylor 以 4,950% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Duke(4,950%),以及 Iowa(4,950%)。該市場總成交量已達 —,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
