SK Hynix Inc（SKHY）の株式分析SKHYSK Hynix Inc

$SKHY is up 7.4% in pre-market trading to $156.15 after the company reported its strongest quarterly results in history: Q3 2026 revenue reached 104.62 trillion KRW, marking the first time quarterly revenue exceeded 100 trillion KRW; operating profit was 83.33 trillion KRW, up 632% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 80%, both significantly beating analyst consensus expectations.

$SKHYNIX After holding SK for half a month, I'm finally in profit. Should I take the exit? I feel like it could still rise a lot.

$SNDK earnings are coming this week. Is SanDisk heading north or south? Over the weekend, as Gang Ge expected, SanDisk probed the 1230 level multiple times after hours but failed to break below it with meaningful volume. Futures dipped to a low of 1194 and quickly wicked back up. The entire weekend was range-bound above 1230. This week SanDisk faces the earnings test. Since rallying to 1900 in September, SanDisk has been in a steady decline. The primary reason is that Chinese manufacturer CXMT has made technological progress, putting continued pressure on the memory sector. Combined with early large profits being taken, the price has kept falling. Gang Ge's view on SanDisk remains long-term bullish. The fundamental demand base for AI memory is still there, and the market's panic selling over CXMT looks somewhat overdone. AI data centers have opened up a new revenue focus. Gang Ge believes that if this earnings report beats expectations, SanDisk's price could see a short-term rebound. Everyone just needs to wait for the earnings release. $SKHY $BTC

#StockEarningsSeason Is SK Hynix being unfairly sold off? In this wave, SK Hynix is printing money on profits while its stock price goes through hell. It reports Q3 results on October 28, and the market has already done the math for it: revenue around 98 trillion KRW, operating profit around 77 trillion, with margins hitting 78% — selling memory at luxury-goods gross margins, a sixth straight record. Where does the money come from? HBM4 feeding NVIDIA, DRAM price hikes, long-term contracts locking in volume. As long as AI doesn't stop, it's the "king of storage." But the stock? Down more than half from its high. Market sentiment is simple: I believe you're earning this much, but I'm afraid of whether you'll still earn next year. So the focus of this earnings report isn't "how strong it is," but three questions: Is HBM4 shipment actually smooth; Do long-term contracts lock in volume or lock in fate; Are shareholders willing to be generous with dividends. Fundamentals haven't collapsed, but sentiment has already lain down. This stock now looks like a suddenly rich old buddy — pockets full, face full of worry. If Q3 beats expectations, valuation repair could kick off at any moment; if it misses, keep "seeking fortune in danger." Recent market sentiment is poor, but that doesn't mean shorting SK Hynix makes money! Shorting SK Hynix is worse than shorting SanDisk or Micron! After all, SK Hynix is the leader! $SKHY (SKHYUSDT) $SNDK (SNDKUSDT) $MU (MUUSDT)

$SNDK consensus EPS is around $46.2, already above the upper end of the company's $44 to $46 guidance range, yet the stock has slid from its 52-week high of $2,354.39 on June 22 to $1,238.03, a drawdown of about 47%. Earnings estimates keep getting revised higher, while the stock is already being priced on a cycle-top logic. $MU $WDC STX SKHY First, the schedule: results are due after the close on October 29 Eastern Time, with the call at 4:30pm EDT, which is 4:30am Beijing time on October 30. AMZN and INTC also report the same evening. Now the numbers. Fiscal 2027 Q1 guidance: revenue of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, non-GAAP gross margin of 83% to 85%, non-GAAP EPS of $44 to $46. Consensus expects revenue of about $10.6 billion to $10.7 billion and EPS of about $46.2 to $46.9, while the Earnings Whispers whisper number is $49.13. Revenue in the same period last year was $2.31 billion, with EPS of $1.22. Last quarter the company guided EPS to $30 to $33 and actually delivered $39.25. Let me draw the business boundaries clearly. $SNDK only does NAND and SSD, does not produce HBM and does not touch DRAM; $WDC and STX sell HDDs. $WDC's price per TB rose 28% last quarter and HDD lead times are very long, but I wrote on October 24 that you cannot infer the whole NAND and DRAM industry will rise in sync just because $WDC's HDD prices are rising. On October 23, $MU rose while $SNDK fell, which shows capital is already pricing them separately. Four things to watch this time. First, the relationship between price and shipments. Last quarter revenue grew 51% quarter over quarter, about two-thirds from price increases and one-third from shipment volume. TrendForce expects NAND contract prices to rise 15% to 20% quarter over quarter in Q4, with enterprise SSD up 23% to 28%, but PC makers are cutting SSD capacity configurations, and it is very difficult for enterprise SSD to negotiate increases above 30%. Last quarter edge business revenue was $5.432 billion, larger than the $2.977 billion from data centers, so if the consumer side weakens, it will show up here first. Second, long-term agreements. Remaining performance obligations were $59.8 billion at the end of last quarter, rising to $91.1 billion with two new agreements signed afterward, plus $16.5 billion in financial guarantees. I wrote on October 22 that holding long-term contracts does not mean fully escaping the memory cycle. This time we need to see whether contract amounts can continue to increase. Third, gross margin. Last quarter was 84.6%, guidance is 83% to 85%, and management's long-term model for fiscal 2028 to 2030 is about 80%. The midpoint of guidance is already slightly below last quarter, and the market wants to see whether it can be held rather than pushed higher. Fourth, supply. In August, SanDisk and Kioxia announced more than $31 billion of investment in Japan through 2032. I wrote in my October 25 SanDisk analysis that for investors this is both a long-term growth opportunity and an important variable for future supply expansion. How management describes 2027 industry bit supply is something to listen for clearly this time. On valuation, based on $1,238.03 and fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of $70.88, the trailing P/E is about 17.5x; based on the fiscal 2027 consensus of about $217, the forward P/E is just over 5x. I also noted in the October 25 piece that cyclical companies often look especially cheap on P/E at earnings peaks. Now the stock's position. It fell 8.51% in a single day on October 22, hit an intraday low of $1,228.89 on October 23, and is down about 29% over the past 20 trading days. Technically, I am watching whether $1,200 to $1,230 can form support, and above that the stock needs to reclaim the $1,300 and $1,370 areas before the downtrend can gradually improve. If $1,200 does not hold, even good guidance just adds one more piece of evidence to cycle-top concerns; reclaiming $1,300 would show capital is starting to reprice the long-term agreements. Risk note: the above is only personal market observation and opinion sharing, not investment advice. Crypto assets and stock contracts are highly volatile, so please manage risk carefully.