Microsoft Corp（MSFT）の株式分析MSFTMicrosoft Corp

You could argue that in the middle of an AI tech boom, with many names already having made similar moves while people call it a bubble, $MSFT already had its 2022 move. This also implies it could get choppy here for a bit before resuming higher.

$MSFT blow off top? The resistance area is being rejected, and a breakout retest at ~$500 is necessary. Friday's netflow ended with $5M in Put Flow.

$MSFT just lost its 531 range. Losing 530 could bring in more selling.

Yesterday, stocks and BTC fell as market concerns about AI resurfaced. CoreWeave rents out Nvidia chip-powered computing capacity to customers including Microsoft, OpenAI, and Meta, and relies heavily on debt to fund its expansion. Investors worry whether AI infrastructure revenue is growing fast enough to cover debt servicing costs. The company's 5Y CDS spread, which reflects the cost of default protection, reached a record 1,194.5 basis points. US investors bought the dip: the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Nasdaq was nearly flat, and the Dow rose 1.1%. BTC also recovered its losses.

#WeeklyRecap #WarshIMFRemarks Warsh's Fed remarks: What do they mean for BTC and the market? My main takeaway is that although Warsh did not commit to any specific rate decision, he clearly made inflation control a priority. As a result, the market can only rely on upcoming economic data and cannot get a clear signal from the Fed. At the IMF meeting held on October 16, 2026, Fed official Kevin Warsh emphasized the importance of price stability, expressed confidence in the resilience of the US economy, and said he would not prejudge future policy meetings. The Fed raised rates in September, and inflation that continues to run above expectations has once again raised concerns about further monetary tightening. 1. Hawkish or dovish: Which side is the Fed leaning toward? Hawkish pressure persists Inflation remains elevated, and combined with the Fed's commitment to price stability, this suggests further rate hikes are still possible. While higher rates usually support the dollar, they often weigh on risk assets such as tech stocks and Bitcoin. However, the Fed did not commit to another rate hike Warsh said he would not prejudge upcoming meetings. His remarks reflected a cautious stance rather than confirmation of an imminent rate hike. The meeting scheduled for October 27-28, and the economic data released afterward, will be crucial. My view: While the inflation outlook carries "hawkish" risk, Warsh's recent remarks did not confirm that a new round of rate hikes is near. It is important to distinguish between the Fed's firm stance against inflation and actual rate decisions. 2. How might Warsh's remarks affect Bitcoin? BTC rebound If the market interprets Warsh's cautious tone as a signal that near-term rate hikes are less likely, bond yields and the dollar may weaken. That could create room for a "relief rally" in Bitcoin. Of course, such a move would need support from price action and spot market demand. BTC pullback If inflation remains elevated and investors increasingly expect further rate hikes, bond yields may rise again. That would tighten financial conditions and could trigger another round of selling in Bitcoin and other risk assets. Choppy but no clear trend If Warsh continues to avoid providing forward guidance, the market may swing between concerns about further rate hikes and hopes for a pause. In that case, BTC could continue trading in a range until new inflation data or the Fed's October 27-28 decision provides clearer direction. Recent developments show that even before Warsh spoke, Bitcoin was already under pressure from high inflation data and weakness in tech stocks, trading around $81,000. The dollar then weakened, and US stock index futures rose slightly after his comments. While these moves suggest some easing in rate expectations, they are not enough to guarantee a sustained BTC recovery.3. What should investors watch next? Indicator | Potential bullish signal for BTC | Potential bearish signal for BTC US inflation | Inflation is falling | Inflation remains elevated Fed rate expectations | Rate hike odds are declining | The market is pricing in further rate hikes Dollar and bond yields | Both are weakening | Both are strengthening BTC price action | Breaks resistance and holds | Falls below support amid heavy selling Overall: The most important signal is not whether Warsh himself sounds hawkish or dovish, but whether his remarks change the market's expectations for the actual rate path. As for BTC, I would not assume that one speech guarantees a rebound. Watch whether Bitcoin can reclaim key resistance when the dollar and US Treasury yields weaken; also watch whether inflation concerns heat up again and drag its price lower. $BTC ‌$MU ‌$XAUUSD ‌$MSFT ‌