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Netflix Q3 Earnings Beat Expectations, Outlook Weak
"Now Streaming" is The Fly's weekly recap of the stories surrounding the biggest content streamers.PLAYING THIS WEEKEND:Among this weekend's most notable new streaming content is season three of Netflixromantic comedy series "Nobody Wants This," starring Kristen Bell and Adam Brody. Netflix subscribers can also catch the new season of French mystery thriller series "Lupin," while Prime Videousers can watch season two of action thriller series "The Terminal List," starring Chris Pratt and Taylor Kitsch.NETFLIX RESULTS:Earlier this week, Netflix reported better-than-expected Q3 earnings per share with revenue that was in-line with consensus estimates. Operating margin grew to 34.6% from 28.2% year-over-year, with the company noting that revenue growth was driven primarily by subscription revenue, reflecting increases in memberships and pricing, growth in advertising revenue and a favorable impact from F/X rates, net of hedging. Looking ahead, Netflix provided a downbeat outlook for Q4 earnings and revenue and a below-consensus revenue outlook for fiscal 2026.Following the report, at least a dozen securities analysts cut their price targets on the shares, with UBS saying that the Q3 results were in line on revenue with better expense-timing-driven profits, while softer Q4 guidance and weaker advertising point to 2026 revenue at the low end of guidance. Margins and long-term goals remain intact, with improved U.S. content execution, focused investment in core film/TV/live offerings, and a new Chief Content Officer key to restoring engagement and growth, the firm added.Additionally, Needham analyst Laura Martin downgraded Netflix to Hold from Buy without a price target. The company's FX-neutral revenue growth decelerated from 14% in Q1 to 12% in Q2 and to 11% in Q3, with single-digit revenue growth projected in FY27, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Netflix content problem "seems clear", and while the firm believes Peter Rice is "an excellent TV executive," it will take him about two years to fix the company's $20 billion content slate, Needham noted, stating that the strategic position at Netflix relative to YouTubeis deteriorating.COMCAST RESULTS:Comcastalso reported quarterly results this week, with adjusted earnings per share and revenue for the third quarter coming in ahead of consensus estimates. Of note, Comcast's Peacock streaming platform delivered EBITDA of $261M, increasing $478M year-over-year, with paid subscribers on the platform rising 17% year-over-year to 48M. Looking ahead, CFO Jason Armstrong said during the company's earnings call, "We're simplifying our organizational structure to move faster, improve execution, and operate more efficiently. As part of this transformation, we do expect to take a significant charge in the fourth quarter... We expect to have a significant charge in the fourth quarter related mostly to our transformation efforts, and I would quantify that at over $1 billion."Following the report, several analysts lowered their price targets on the stock, with Citi saying the upcoming "transformation activities" to which the company alluded are "apt to create some uncertainty on 2027 expectations." Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng lowered the firm's price target on Comcast to $23 from $24 and maintained a Neutral rating on the shares. The company's results demonstrated improving trends in Connectivity & Platforms segment EBITDA and broadband ARPU, which should continue in Q4 and provide confidence in Comcast's convergence strategy, the analyst tells investors in a research note. That said, broadband net losses missed and likely will continue to see pressure from increasing competition well the management focuses more on managing broadband as part of the overall converged relationship, the firm added.COMCAST JOB CUTS:Prior to the release of the Q3 print, Bloomberg's Kelcee Griffis reported that Comcast intends to cut a significant number of jobs as part of a broader overhaul of its cable TV, broadband, and wireless businesses. The reorganization is meant to put the company in a stronger position to operate as an independent entity after it spins off the NBCUniversal businesses in 2027, the author noted.SKYDANCE INVESTMENT:On Wednesday, John Malone said he predicts SpaceXcould invest $8B-$10B in Skydanceand secure a global content-output deal, helping David Ellison reduce the media company's debt burden while giving Elon Musk's company access to content and other assets, The Hollywood Reporter's Alex Weperin reported. "I think there's a deal coming there," Malone said at the Paley Center International Council Summit, pointing to the financial ties between Musk and Oraclefounder Larry Ellison, David Ellison's father and a major backer of Skydance. A day later, Semafor's Rohan Goswami reported that Elon Musk has invested roughly $1B in Skydance, according to people familiar with the matter.VERSANT/DISNEY:Versantannounced a licensing agreement to stream season one of E!'s The Golden Life on Hulu. The first two episodes will be available on Hulu and Hulu on Disney+for bundle subscribers in the U.S. beginning November 3, with remaining episodes available seven days after premiering on E!.FUBO/NBA:On Thursday, FuboTVannounced new distribution agreements for carriage of seven regional sports networks for the 2026-2027 National Basketball League season. The Fubo streaming service will continue to carry local coverage of the following teams in each respective market through new distribution agreements: Atlanta Hawks; Charlotte Hornets; Detroit Pistons; Miami HEAT; Milwaukee Bucks; Oklahoma City Thunder; Orlando Magic. Carriage of the Los Angeles Clippers was previously announced through a direct distribution agreement with the NBA and the team.STOCK PLAYS:Other publicly traded companies in the streaming space include Apple, AMC Networks, Fox, and Roku.
DayOne Data Centers Weighs IPO Delay, Targeting $2.5B-$3B
Massive AI rounds from Tenstorrent and Modal Labs lead this week's financings.This week's private company news:DayOne Data Centers is weighing options for its U.S. IPO, including a potential delay or size cut, as volatility around data centers increases, Bloomberg's Julia Fioretti, Elffie Chew, Manuel Baigorri, and Bailey Lipschultz. According to sources, the company is considering going ahead with a smaller listing that may raise $2.5B-$3B, roughly half of what it had originally aimed for. Deliberations are ongoing and DayOne hasn't made any final decisions, the sources add.SB Energy, the SoftBank Group–controlled developer of a massive planned Ohio data center project for OpenAI, is considering going public in December or possibly waiting until next year, according to people familiar with the discussions, The Information's Phoebe Liu and Valida Pau. That is a later timeline than previously expected, the authors note. The data center developer was aiming to go public as soon as September, The Information reported in August.Some of the biggest capital raises by private companies this week include:Tenstorrent– The AI computing company has closed $1.5B in Series E funding at a $6.2B post-money valuation. The round was led by Trace Capital and Innovation X, with participation from new and existing investors. Publicly-traded companies operating in the same space include AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm.Modal Labs– The provider of artificial intelligence infrastructure announced that it has raised $750 in Series D round, led by Accel. The company is now valued at $15.75B. Publicly-traded companies operating in the same space include Snowflake, MongoDB, and ServiceNow.Belk– The regional department store serving communities across the Southeastern U.S. announced the closing of $1.275B in new senior secured credit facilities with Wells Fargo Bank and Pathlight Capital. Publicly-traded companies operating in the same space include Macy's, Dillard's, and Nordstrom.Whop– The technology company on a mission to deliver everyone a sustainable income, announced a $200M Series D at a $5.1B valuation, led by Sequoia and Shopify Ventures. Publicly-traded companies operating in the same space include Shopify, Block, and Etsy (ESTY).Hertha Metals– The steel company behind the world's first single-step steel and high-purity iron process for lower-cost domestic production has announced the close of a $133.65M Series A round, including a $65M equity investment from the U.S. Government, executed through its Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment program in partnership with the Economic Defense Unit. The round was co-led by Khosla Ventures and Doerr Capital, with participation from CEV, Pear Ventures, Gates Frontier, Niterra SUISO no MORI Fund, Toyota Ventures and Siemens Financial Services. Publicly-traded companies operating in the same space include Nucor, Steel Dynamics, and Cleveland-Cliffs.Unicorns to watch this week:Lunar Energy– The company remains one to watch as home‑battery adoption accelerates and grid‑independence tech draws policy attention. Lunar Energy last raised $102M at a $1B valuation, and it continues to position itself alongside Tesla, Enphase, and SolarEdgein residential energy storage.Axelar– The company stays on radar as cross‑chain infrastructure gains traction in the blockchain/AI convergence theme. It's consistently cited among emerging unicorns in that category, with public market analogs including Coinbase, Marathon Digital, and Riot Platforms.Anysphere– The company continues to draw attention in the AI‑native developer‑tools space, appearing in recent coverage of new $5B‑plus "ultra‑unicorns." Its closest public market peers include Microsoft, Alphabet, and CoreWeaveas AI‑accelerated infrastructure reshapes software development.VAST Data– The company remains a high‑momentum enterprise AI‑infrastructure name, with ongoing interest around its data layer architecture for large scale AI workloads. Publicly-traded companies operating in the same space include Pure Storage, Snowflake, and NetApp.Digit Insurance– The company continues to stand out in digital‑first insurance as tech enabled underwriting gains share and customer acquisition shifts online. It operates in the same space as Lemonade, Root, and Progressive, and remains a notable player in the insurtech rebound narrative.IPOs to watch:FireFly Robotics– The company, which designs and manufactures autonomous, all-electric robotic systems for turf and grounds environments, announced it has publicly filed a registration statement on Form S-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission relating to a proposed public direct listing of its common stock. The company is not selling any shares and will not receive any proceeds in the direct listing.Anthropic– The company is now planning to hold its IPO in November, which is later than the October listing expected by investors, The Wall Street Journal's Corrie Driebusch, Anissa Gardizy, and Kate Clark, citing people familiar with the matter. The report states that a delayed listing would allow the company to share its Q3 results and show its strong competitive position. Anthropic also intends to meet with investors in the coming days, and the meetings are expected to help the company and its bankers gauge investor appetite for the offering, WSJ noted.Nscale Limited– The company has filed with the SEC for an initial public offering of its ordinary shares. The company intends to apply to list its ordinary shares on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "NSCL". Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley are listed as the lead bookrunners.Altera Corporation– Altera announced that its parent company has confidentially submitted a draft registration statement on Form S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission relating to the proposed public offering of its common stock. "The number of shares to be offered and the price range for the proposed offering have not yet been determined. The proposed public offering remains subject to the completion of the SEC review process, as well as market and other conditions," Altera stated. Altera, which provides high-performance, programmable compute and connectivity solutions, is backed by Silver Lake and Intel.Brooks Automation– The company announced that it has confidentially submitted a draft registration statement on Form S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission relating to the proposed initial public offering of its common stock. The number of shares to be offered and the price range for the proposed offering have not yet been determined. The initial public offering is expected to take place after the SEC completes its review process, subject to market and other conditions."Private Markets" is The Fly's recurring series of stories on the latest moves in the private sector, largest unicorn companies and initial public offerings to watch. Fly subscribers, add $PRIVATE to your portfolio for alerts on breaking news in the startup and venture capital space.
Nasdaq Rises on SpaceX Earnings Report
The major averages closed broadly higher, led by the Nasdaq following upbeat results from SpaceX and Super Micro Computer. In addition to the space technology company reporting its first profit as a public company, Elon Musk said a merger with Tesla would be "a good idea," but one that needs to be studied by special committees formed by each of the companies' boards.Get caught up quickly on the top news and calls moving stocks with these five Top Five lists.1. STOCK NEWS:SpaceXreported better-than-expected Q3 results, with the company noting it has 13.6M Starlink consumer subscribers and 11,100 satellites in orbitMeanwhile, Elon Musk said that SpaceX and Teslahave formed committees to consider a possible mergerNetflixreported upbeat Q3 results but provided a lower-than-expected outlook for Q4Abbottreported better-than-expected Q3 earnings and revenue and announced it will separate its global Nutrition business into an independent companyNvidiaintroduced DSX POD, a reference design for complete Vera Rubin AI factories built by partners inside modular containers2. WALL STREET CALLS:Netflixcut to Hold at Needham amid decelerating revenue growthNorthrop Grummanupgraded to Outperform at BairdChipotledowngraded to Hold at TD CowenZoom Communicationsupgraded to Outperform at OppenheimerBarclays downgraded Cirrus Logicto Underweight on Applesupply chain concerns3. AROUND THE WEB:Blackstoneand a unit of Apollo Globalare in discussion with the National Football League to join the league's list of approved private equity firms that can acquire minority interests in its franchises, Bloomberg reportsU.S. Senators Richard Blumenthal and Josh Hawley have sent a letter to GoogleCEO Sundar Pichai seeking answers about what the company knows about its AI tools' impact on children's mental health and educational development, WSJ saysMeta'sMuse AI companion surpassed 10M U.S. downloads within its first 40 days, ranking among just a dozen mobile apps to reach that milestone, TechCrunch saysAkzo Nobelis in early talks to sell its European vehicle refinishing business to secure antitrust approval for its planned $19B merger with Axalta, WSJ reportseBayplans to cut about 9% of its workforce to simplify operations and redirect resources toward faster-growing areas, following 6% layoffs in February, Reuters says4. MOVERS:Super Microgained after the company raised its Q1 revenue viewApplied Digitalincreased after Roth Capital reinstated coverage of the stock with a Buy ratingRoivantwas higher in New York after announcing its CLARITY-1 and CLARITY-2 trials met its primary endpointsAT&Twas lower after reporting Q3 results and raising its outlook for FY26Pegasystemsfell after reporting Q3 results5. EARNINGS/GUIDANCE:Thermo Fisherreported Q3 results and raised its guidance for FY26, with CEO Marc Casper calling it "another excellent quarter"Elevance Healthreported Q3 results and raised its outlook for FY26Danaherreported Q3 results, provided guidance for Q4, and increased its outlook for FY26UDRreported preliminary Q3 resultsWinnebagoreported Q4 results and provided guidance for FY27INDEXES:The Dow rose 360.21, or 0.69%, to 52,856.09, the Nasdaq gained 278.04, or 1.05%, to 26,702.86, and the S&P 500 advanced 44.60, or 0.58%, to 7,757.17.
Alphabet Shares Down, Mixed Options Sentiment
Cboe data shows mixed options sentiment in Alphabet (GOOG), with shares down $5.96 near $330.44. Options volume roughly in line with average with 196k contracts traded and calls leading puts for a put/call ratio of 0.49, compared to a typical level near 0.51. Implied volatility (IV30) dropped 0.53 near 35.98,and above the 52wk median, suggesting an expected daily move of $7.49. Put-call skew flattened, suggesting a modestly bullish tone.Looking ahead: Alphabet (GOOG) will report earnings after the close on 2026-10-28.Option markets are pricing in a 50% probability of a move greater than 5.45% or $18.00.
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