Microsoft Corp（MSFT）股票分析MSFTMicrosoft Corp

Breaking: Inception's Mercury 3 has received backing from Microsoft's M12 and Nvidia's venture arm, and is now live on Venice with anonymous use available. The diffusion model generates 1,068 tokens per second with a context window of 1 million tokens. @AskVenice

$MSFT (-0.3% pre) OpenAI to bring AI models to $GOOGL Google's cloud, in further expansion beyond Microsoft

Tech companies are cutting jobs again, and this time it's not just Silicon Valley. Amazon, Meta, Google, and Microsoft have all trimmed roles over the past two years, and non-Silicon Valley firms like SAP and Cisco are restructuring too. According to layoff trackers, the global tech industry has cut six-figure numbers of positions over the past two years. On the surface it shows up as "restructuring charges" and "severance costs" on earnings reports, but behind it is mortgage rate pressure hitting ordinary households first: the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate approached 8% at one point and remains above 6% even after pulling back. On the same loan, monthly payments are several hundred dollars higher than during the low-rate era, and credit card and auto loan delinquency rates are also ticking up. Households cut spending first, then businesses feel demand cool, and only then does that line on the earnings report appear. Before every Fed meeting, the market prices in expectations ahead of time: when rate-cut hopes heat up, stocks and bonds rally first; on the actual day, even an in-line outcome feels like a non-event, or even "buy the rumor, sell the fact." So don't treat a single meeting as a turning point, and companies aren't making decisions based on one rate decision either. Layoffs at this scale show companies are stockpiling for winter, not waiting for spring. They're cutting projects, freezing hiring, requiring return-to-office, and concentrating resources on the most profitable businesses to protect margins and cash flow first. In other words, this isn't a short sprint of adjustment but positioning for a "longer winter." Has anyone around you been caught up in this wave? Did they take severance and leave, or transfer roles, take pay cuts, or face a hiring freeze? Share your thoughts.

For 15+ years, computing moved in one direction: thin client to cloud. Local AI is now reversing part of that, pushing compute back to the device. $NVDA $AAPL $MSFT

$MSFT FYI to the bearish on this stock. You are bearish on the only hyperscaler whose free cash flow WON'T go negative on this AI buildout cycle. In fact, its FCF will hit $100B in 2030. You are crazy.