Alcoa Corp

Alcoa Corp (AA) Stock Analysis

$41.450

+1.057 (+2.55%)At close

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High
44.348
Open
41.650
VWAP
42.29
Volume
13.84M
Mkt Cap
6.97B
Low
41.080
Amount
585.45M
EV/EBITDA, TTM
3.19

Alcoa Corporation is a vertically integrated aluminum company comprised of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production (smelting and casting), and energy generation. The Company's operations are comprised of two business segments: Alumina and Aluminum. The Alumina segment primarily consists of its bauxite mines and alumina refineries, and its operations include the mining of bauxite and other aluminous ores, as well as the refining, production, and sale of smelter grade and non-metallurgical alumina. The alumina produced by this segment is sold primarily to internal and external aluminum smelter customers; a portion of the alumina is sold to external customers who process it into industrial chemical products. The Aluminum segment consists of the Company's aluminum smelting and casting operations along with the Company's energy production assets in Brazil, Canada, and the United States. It has direct and indirect ownership of over 25 operating locations across eight countries.

AI analysis of Alcoa Corp (AA)

Buy

Alcoa Corp is a good buy right now due to its recent earnings report showing an EPS of $1.82, exceeding expectations of $1.54, and a significant year-over-year sales growth of 23.7%. The current price of $41.45 presents a favorable entry point, especially considering the forward P/E ratio of 8.04, which suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings potential. However, a risk to consider is the recent downgrade in price targets by analysts, with the lowest target set at $50, indicating potential volatility ahead.

Analyst Ratings (14)

+39.03% upside
Buy
9 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 41.45
Low
38.00
Average
57.63
High
78.00

Morgan Stanley

2026-10-07

Price Target

$50

Equal Weight

JPMorgan

2026-10-07

Price Target

$50

Neutral

Freedom Broker

2026-09-22

Price Target

$76

Buy

Wells Fargo

2026-09-18

Price Target

$60

Overweight

Argus

2026-07-22

Price Target

$55

Buy

Valuation Metrics

The current forward P/E ratio for Alcoa Corp (AA) is 8.04, compared to its 5-year average forward P/E of -5.92.

Forward P/E

Fair
5Y Average P/E
-5.92
Current P/E
8.04
Overvalued
55.52
Undervalued
-67.36

Forward EV/EBITDA

Undervalued
5Y Average EV/EBITDA
6.92
Current EV/EBITDA
3.19
Overvalued
10.27
Undervalued
3.58

Forward P/S

Fair
5Y Average P/S
0.74
Current P/S
0.70
Overvalued
0.97
Undervalued
0.52

Alphio AI Price Scenarios for AA

Scenario prices are the last monthly forecast band of the current year. Probabilities are fixed model weights (25 / 50 / 25), not guarantees.

B

Bull

Bull · 25%AA

$33.25

Scenario price

B

Base

Base · 50%AA

$30.79

Scenario price

B

Bear

Bear · 25%AA

$25.71

Scenario price

Whales holding AA

A

ARGA Investment Management, LLC

+ HoldingAA

+12.47%

3M Return

F

Freemont Capital Pte. Ltd.

+ HoldingAA

+6.59%

3M Return

H

Hosking Partners LLP

+ HoldingAA

+0.46%

3M Return

L

L1 Capital Pty. Limited

+ HoldingAA

-0.50%

3M Return

C

Castle Hook Partners LP

+ HoldingAA

-1.18%

3M Return

C

Cookson Peirce & Co Inc

+ HoldingAA

-4.01%

3M Return

AA FAQ — answered by Alphio AI

Alcoa Corporation is a vertically integrated aluminum company comprised of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production (smelting and casting), and energy generation. The Company's operations are comprised of two business segments: Alumina and Aluminum. The Alumina segment primarily consists of its bauxite mines and alumina refineries, and its operations include the mining of bauxite and other aluminous ores, as well as the refining, production, and sale of smelter grade and non-metallurgical alumina. The alumina produced by this segment is sold primarily to internal and external aluminum smelter customers; a portion of the alumina is sold to external customers who process it into industrial chemical products. The Aluminum segment consists of the Company's aluminum smelting and casting operations along with the Company's energy production assets in Brazil, Canada, and the United States. It has direct and indirect ownership of over 25 operating locations across eight countries. It operates in the Basic Materials sector (PRIMARY PRODUCTION OF ALUMINUM industry).

Alcoa Corp is a good buy right now due to its recent earnings report showing an EPS of $1.82, exceeding expectations of $1.54, and a significant year-over-year sales growth of 23.7%. The current price of $41.45 presents a favorable entry point, especially considering the forward P/E ratio of 8.04, which suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings potential. However, a risk to consider is the recent downgrade in price targets by analysts, with the lowest target set at $50, indicating potential volatility ahead.

14 analysts cover AA: 9 rate it Buy, 5 Hold and 0 Sell. The average price target is 57.63.

Community

More ↗
0xSkewfalcon9/19/2026

The $AA weekly chart is shaping up nicely for a reversal. It is trading along horizontal support plus a supporting trendline, and the $42-43 level may be the bottom. I am looking for a break and retest of $49-50 for breakout confirmation.

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0xSkewfalcon9/19/2026

Just before close, $AA received over $1M worth of the very dated ITM $40 calls expiring January 19, 2029!

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This page is for research only and is not investment advice. Models can be wrong. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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