Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

根據「Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Steve Witkoff 以壓倒性的 72% 獲勝機率主導市場；Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf 以 70.5% 位居第二，Jared Kushner 以 67.5% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $47.3K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Steve Witkoff (72%)：Steve Witkoff 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 72¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $974 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (70.5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf 保持著 70.5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 71¢。
• Jared Kushner (67.5%)：以 67.5% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Jared Kushner 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Abbas Araghchi (62.5%)、Majid Takht-Ravanchi (55%)，以及 Masoud Pezeshkian (44.5%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 J.D. Vance 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.

Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.

Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.

Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.

If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：Majid Takht-Ravanchi 當前交易價為 55%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 37.5%，形成 -17.5% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 Marco Rubio 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 23% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 81.8%——形成可觀的 +58.8% EV 差。
• 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 Masoud Pezeshkian（EV 差：+55.5%）以及 Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani（EV 差：+46.1%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。