Anthropic opening share price on IPO day?

根據「Anthropic opening share price on IPO day?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，$90 to $100 以壓倒性的 4,950% 獲勝機率主導市場；$110 to $120 以 4,950% 位居第二，$70 to $80 以 4,900% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $472，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• $90 to $100 (4,950%)：$90 to $100 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,950¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• $110 to $120 (4,950%)：作為最可行的替代選項，$110 to $120 保持著 4,950% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,950¢。
• $70 to $80 (4,900%)：以 4,900% 的機率位列第三，市場對 $70 to $80 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 $80 to $90 (4,900%)、$100 to $110 (4,900%)，以及 $120+ (4,900%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 <$70 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve according to the official opening price of Anthropic's Class A common stock on its first day of trading on the secondary market on its primary exchange, as published by that exchange.

The official opening price is the price of the first trade of Anthropic's Class A common stock executed on its primary exchange, as set by that exchange's IPO opening cross or opening auction and published by the exchange as the official opening price. Only trading on the primary exchange counts. The IPO price at which shares are sold to investors in the offering, any indicative or expected opening price published before the first trade, and any trading before the exchange listing (such as on private-share platforms or in pre-IPO or "when-issued" markets) will not be considered.

If the opening price falls exactly on a boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket (e.g., exactly $80.00 resolves to "$80 to $90").

Anthropic’s first day of trading refers to the first day Anthropic’s Class A common stock trades on the secondary market on its primary exchange.

For this market, an IPO means an underwritten, SEC-registered offering of newly issued shares of Anthropic’s Class A common stock sold to the public for cash under a registration statement on Form S-1 that the SEC has declared effective, where the shares have been approved for listing on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE American, the Nasdaq Stock Market, or Cboe BZX Exchange, and the offering has been priced, as shown by the first final prospectus filed with the SEC under Rule 424(b). Direct listings, mergers with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), reverse mergers, private placements, and listings outside the U.S. will not count. An IPO counts as completed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET if the pricing date stated on the cover of that first final prospectus is on or before that time, even if the prospectus is filed afterwards; if Anthropic’s registration statement has been declared effective by then but the prospectus has not yet been filed, this market will wait until 11:59 PM ET on the second business day after December 31, 2027 for it. Because this market depends on trading in Anthropic’s shares, if the IPO is priced but the shares never begin trading on the listing exchange, this market will resolve to “No IPO by December 31, 2027”. If Anthropic does not complete an IPO by then, or publicly announces a definitive agreement to be acquired by or merged into another company before completing one, this market will resolve to “No IPO by December 31, 2027”, regardless of whether that transaction is later completed or terminated. An IPO by a holding company formed to hold all or substantially all of Anthropic’s business for the purpose of the IPO counts as Anthropic’s IPO.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange's official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

If no official opening price for Anthropic's first day of trading is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official opening price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.