The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping vs. Dune: Part Three Opening Weekend Box Office
核心摘要
根據「The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping vs. Dune: Part Three Opening Weekend Box Office」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，HG 以壓倒性的 5,000% 獲勝機率主導市場；Dune 以 5,000% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- HG (5,000%)：HG 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,000¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- Dune (5,000%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Dune 保持著 5,000% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,000¢。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HG | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 2 | Dune | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to "HG" if the domestic gross for The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping on its opening weekend is greater than the domestic gross for Dune: Part Three on its opening weekend.
This market will resolve to "Dune" if the domestic gross for Dune: Part Three on its opening weekend is greater than the domestic gross for The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping on its opening weekend.
If the figures for both opening weekends are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either film fails to be released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on The Numbers “Box Office” tab for "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" (https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Hunger-Games-The-Sunrise-on-the-Reaping-(2026)#tab=summary) and "Dune: Part Three" (https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Dune-Part-Three-(2026)#tab=summary) will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekends for each movie are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by January 11, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
常見問題
目前市場對「The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping vs. Dune: Part Three Opening Weekend Box Office」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，HG 以 5,000% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Dune（5,000%）。該市場總成交量已達 —，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。