Eurovision Asia 2026: Top 3
核心摘要
根據「Eurovision Asia 2026: Top 3」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，Vietnam 以壓倒性的 5,000% 獲勝機率主導市場；Thailand 以 5,000% 位居第二，Malaysia 以 5,000% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- Vietnam (5,000%)：Vietnam 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,000¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- Thailand (5,000%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Thailand 保持著 5,000% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,000¢。
- Malaysia (5,000%)：以 5,000% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Malaysia 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）
在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：
- 替代選項：包括 Laos (5,000%)、Bhutan (5,000%)，以及 South Korea (5,000%)。
- 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Philippines 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vietnam | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 2 | Thailand | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 3 | Malaysia | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 4 | Laos | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 5 | Bhutan | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 6 | South Korea | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 7 | Philippines | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 8 | Bangladesh | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 9 | Mongolia | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 10 | Nepal | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 11 | Cambodia | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision Asia 2026 as one of the top 3 highest ranked candidates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Countries will be ranked according to their official competition ranking in the Grand Final. If two or more countries share the same ranking, ties will be broken by the total number of points received. If still tied, ties will be broken by the total number of points received from the national juries. If still tied, ties will be broken by the total number of points received from the public vote. If still tied, ties will be broken alphabetically by English country name. This market will resolve according to the countries ranked in the top 3 under this ranking.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 3 highest ranked based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If the results of the Grand Final are not announced by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://www.eurovision.com/asia/), including live footage of Eurovision Asia 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
常見問題
目前市場對「Eurovision Asia 2026: Top 3」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，Vietnam 以 5,000% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Thailand（5,000%），以及 Malaysia（5,000%）。該市場總成交量已達 —，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。