Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?
核心摘要
根據「Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，December 31 以壓倒性的 27.5% 獲勝機率主導市場。該市場的下注量已達 $371.2K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- December 31 (27.5%)：December 31 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 28¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $586 的成交量。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 27.5% | $586 | 28¢ | 73¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差
人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。
將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。
頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會
根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：
- 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 December 31 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 27.5% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 34.6%——形成可觀的 +7.1% EV 差。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31Best EV | 27.5% | 34.6% | +7.1% |
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Aug 9, 2026
- 06:12 AMRIRicky.P$15.40
Bought 20 No for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31? at 0.77
Aug 3, 2026
- 02:18 PMRIRicky.P$14.40
Bought 20 No for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31? at 0.72
Aug 2, 2026
- 12:03 AM0909F911029D74$4.90
Sold 7 No for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31? at 0.7
Aug 1, 2026
- 06:08 AMCOconherence$10.02
Bought 15.65625 No for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31? at 0.64
- 01:22 AMCOconherence$9.22
Bought 14.4 No for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31? at 0.64
- 01:19 AMCOconherence$9.22
Bought 14.4 No for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31? at 0.64
- 01:18 AMCOconherence$9.22
Bought 14.4 No for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31? at 0.64
- 01:17 AMCOconherence$9.22
Bought 14.4 No for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31? at 0.64
Jul 31, 2026
- 11:39 PMCOconherence$12.42
Bought 19.4 No for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31? at 0.64
- 11:29 PM——$2.08
Bought 2.849314 Yes for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31? at 0.73
- 11:29 PM——$8.75
Bought 12.150681 Yes for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31? at 0.72
- 11:28 PM——$36.91
Bought 50.56164 Yes for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31? at 0.73
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，December 31 以 27.5% 的獲勝機率領跑。該市場總成交量已達 $371.2K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？
即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。
目前哪個結果的期望值（EV）最高？
最新一輪測算顯示，December 31 是最顯著的錯誤定價。市場對其隱含機率僅給到 27.5%，而我們的 AI 測算其公允價值為 34.6%——形成 +7.1% 的期望值差，是該市場中最具價值的標的。