Fetterman leaves the Democrats by...?

根據「Fetterman leaves the Democrats by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，December 31, 2026 以壓倒性的 3.7% 獲勝機率主導市場。該市場的下注量已達 $80.2K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• December 31, 2026 (3.7%)：December 31, 2026 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $56.9K 的成交量。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For purposes of this market, "Before the Midterms" is defined to mean by November 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Announcements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Fetterman has formally left the Democratic Party will also suffice.

Statements criticizing the Democratic Party, voting with Republicans, endorsing Republican candidates, describing himself as bipartisan or independent-minded, or expressing disagreement with Democratic Party positions will not qualify unless accompanied by an official announcement that he is leaving the Democratic Party or a consensus of credible reporting that he has formally left the Democratic Party.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：December 31, 2026 當前交易價為 3.7%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 1%，形成 -2.7% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。