Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

根据「Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Steve Witkoff 以压倒性的 72% 获胜概率主导市场；Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf 以 70.5% 位居第二，Jared Kushner 以 67.5% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $47.3K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Steve Witkoff (72%)：Steve Witkoff 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 72¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $974 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (70.5%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf 保持着 70.5% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 71¢。
• Jared Kushner (67.5%)：以 67.5% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Jared Kushner 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Abbas Araghchi (62.5%)、Majid Takht-Ravanchi (55%)，以及 Masoud Pezeshkian (44.5%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 J.D. Vance 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.

Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.

Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.

Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.

If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

• 最被高估的结果：Majid Takht-Ravanchi 当前交易价为 55%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 37.5%，形成 -17.5% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
• 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 Marco Rubio 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 23% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 81.8%——形成可观的 +58.8% EV 差。
• 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 Masoud Pezeshkian（EV 差：+55.5%）以及 Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani（EV 差：+46.1%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。