Anthropic opening share price on IPO day?

根据「Anthropic opening share price on IPO day?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，$90 to $100 以压倒性的 4,950% 获胜概率主导市场；$110 to $120 以 4,950% 位居第二，$70 to $80 以 4,900% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $472，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• $90 to $100 (4,950%)：$90 to $100 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,950¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• $110 to $120 (4,950%)：作为最可行的替代选项，$110 to $120 保持着 4,950% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,950¢。
• $70 to $80 (4,900%)：以 4,900% 的概率位列第三，市场对 $70 to $80 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 $80 to $90 (4,900%)、$100 to $110 (4,900%)，以及 $120+ (4,900%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 <$70 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve according to the official opening price of Anthropic's Class A common stock on its first day of trading on the secondary market on its primary exchange, as published by that exchange.

The official opening price is the price of the first trade of Anthropic's Class A common stock executed on its primary exchange, as set by that exchange's IPO opening cross or opening auction and published by the exchange as the official opening price. Only trading on the primary exchange counts. The IPO price at which shares are sold to investors in the offering, any indicative or expected opening price published before the first trade, and any trading before the exchange listing (such as on private-share platforms or in pre-IPO or "when-issued" markets) will not be considered.

If the opening price falls exactly on a boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket (e.g., exactly $80.00 resolves to "$80 to $90").

Anthropic’s first day of trading refers to the first day Anthropic’s Class A common stock trades on the secondary market on its primary exchange.

For this market, an IPO means an underwritten, SEC-registered offering of newly issued shares of Anthropic’s Class A common stock sold to the public for cash under a registration statement on Form S-1 that the SEC has declared effective, where the shares have been approved for listing on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE American, the Nasdaq Stock Market, or Cboe BZX Exchange, and the offering has been priced, as shown by the first final prospectus filed with the SEC under Rule 424(b). Direct listings, mergers with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), reverse mergers, private placements, and listings outside the U.S. will not count. An IPO counts as completed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET if the pricing date stated on the cover of that first final prospectus is on or before that time, even if the prospectus is filed afterwards; if Anthropic’s registration statement has been declared effective by then but the prospectus has not yet been filed, this market will wait until 11:59 PM ET on the second business day after December 31, 2027 for it. Because this market depends on trading in Anthropic’s shares, if the IPO is priced but the shares never begin trading on the listing exchange, this market will resolve to “No IPO by December 31, 2027”. If Anthropic does not complete an IPO by then, or publicly announces a definitive agreement to be acquired by or merged into another company before completing one, this market will resolve to “No IPO by December 31, 2027”, regardless of whether that transaction is later completed or terminated. An IPO by a holding company formed to hold all or substantially all of Anthropic’s business for the purpose of the IPO counts as Anthropic’s IPO.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange's official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

If no official opening price for Anthropic's first day of trading is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official opening price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.