Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

根据「Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，No meeting by December 31, 2027 以压倒性的 7,350% 获胜概率主导市场；Turkey 以 700% 位居第二，Italy 以 495% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $70.3K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• No meeting by December 31, 2027 (7,350%)：No meeting by December 31, 2027 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 7,350¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $7.4K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Turkey (700%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Turkey 保持着 700% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 700¢。
• Italy (495%)：以 495% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Italy 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Slovakia (445%)、Germany (405%)，以及 Azerbaijan (395%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Switzerland 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31, 2027" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Zelenskyy are all present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. A meeting held in Vatican City will resolve to "Vatican City," not "Italy."

If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Europe." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Middle East/North Africa." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to "Other."

For purposes of this market, countries' regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department's regional classifications in the "Countries and Areas List" (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of "Europe and Eurasia" will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of "Near East (Middle East and North Africa)" will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.