Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?

$370.6K Vol
2026年12月31日
Active
概率趋势
December 31 45.5%
June 30 0.7%

核心摘要

根据「Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，No 以压倒性的 5,450% 获胜概率主导市场；Yes 以 4,550% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $370.6K，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • No (5,450%)：No 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,450¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • Yes (4,550%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Yes 保持着 4,550% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,550¢。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1No5450.0%—5450¢-5350¢
2Yes4550.0%—4550¢-4450¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Jun 30, 2026

  • 08:39 AM
    PPPPMT
    $0.00

    Sold 5.25 Yes for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? at 0

Jun 29, 2026

  • 09:51 PM
    TZtzquantalpha001
    $6.37

    Sold 6.43 No for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? at 0.99

  • 08:21 PM
    INIntern.
    $0.00

    Sold 600 Yes for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? at 0

  • 08:21 PM
    ——
    $1.35

    Sold 1.36 No for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? at 0.99

  • 08:21 PM
    ——
    $0.11

    Sold 0.11 No for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? at 0.99

  • 07:20 PM
    ALalfredon996
    $76.92

    Sold 77.7 No for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? at 0.99

  • 07:05 PM
    AGagazarov
    $0.33

    Sold 32.76 Yes for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? at 0.01

  • 02:31 PM
    BLBlackSheepWall
    $9.96

    Bought 10.060333 No for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? at 0.99

  • 12:16 PM
    ——
    $1.00

    Bought 1.006 No for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? at 0.99

  • 10:42 AM
    AHahzgaot
    $307.41

    Sold 310.52 No for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? at 0.99

  • 01:08 AM
    ——
    $0.83

    Bought 83.292306 Yes for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? at 0.01

  • 01:08 AM
    ——
    $1.01

    Bought 1.005 No for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? at 1

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

WH1
WhiteLivesMatter
Event PnL
+$3,428.27
Volume
$8,359.47
Positions
No
IN2
Intern.
Event PnL
-$3,722.29
Volume
$8,322.68
Positions
Yes
TI3
tigerchen
Event PnL
+$3,502.33
Volume
$6,965.75
Positions
No
AE4
aegis777
Event PnL
-$816.21
Volume
$6,181.41
Positions
Yes
EO5
eoghankil
Event PnL
-$815.46
Volume
$3,266.83
Positions
Yes
OL6
OLANCHANO1517
Event PnL
-$896.22
Volume
$2,418.59
Positions
Yes
CE7
0xcE2A…9025
Event PnL
-$116.00
Volume
$2,236.83
Positions
Yes
TH8
theignat
Event PnL
-$130.00
Volume
$1,623.67
Positions
Yes

常见问题

当前市场对「Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，No 以 5,450% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Yes（4,550%）。该市场总成交量已达 $370.6K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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