French Presidential Election: United Right & Center Primary Announced?

根据「French Presidential Election: United Right & Center Primary Announced?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Yes 以压倒性的 5,000% 获胜概率主导市场；No 以 5,000% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Yes (5,000%)：Yes 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,000¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• No (5,000%)：作为最可行的替代选项，No 保持着 5,000% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,000¢。

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between this market's creation and April 17, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the holding of a united right and center primary for the first round of this election is officially announced. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "united right and center primary" is a primary election whose holding is officially announced jointly by Les Républicains and at least one of Renaissance or Horizons, and whose purpose is to designate a single candidate supported by all organizing parties in the first round of this election.

An official announcement requires that each qualifying party (Les Républicains, and Renaissance and/or Horizons) publicly confirms its participation in organizing the primary, e.g., by a decision of its leadership or governing body or a signed agreement between the parties. Statements merely proposing, calling for, agreeing in principle to, or negotiating a primary will not qualify.

A primary organized without Les Républicains, or without either Renaissance or Horizons, will not qualify, regardless of which other parties participate. Whether the primary is subsequently held will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed parties; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.