The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping vs. Dune: Part Three Opening Weekend Box Office
核心摘要
根据「The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping vs. Dune: Part Three Opening Weekend Box Office」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，HG 以压倒性的 5,000% 获胜概率主导市场；Dune 以 5,000% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- HG (5,000%)：HG 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,000¢，显示出市场的高度确信。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- Dune (5,000%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Dune 保持着 5,000% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,000¢。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HG | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 2 | Dune | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to "HG" if the domestic gross for The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping on its opening weekend is greater than the domestic gross for Dune: Part Three on its opening weekend.
This market will resolve to "Dune" if the domestic gross for Dune: Part Three on its opening weekend is greater than the domestic gross for The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping on its opening weekend.
If the figures for both opening weekends are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either film fails to be released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on The Numbers “Box Office” tab for "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" (https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Hunger-Games-The-Sunrise-on-the-Reaping-(2026)#tab=summary) and "Dune: Part Three" (https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Dune-Part-Three-(2026)#tab=summary) will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekends for each movie are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by January 11, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
常见问题
当前市场对「The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping vs. Dune: Part Three Opening Weekend Box Office」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，HG 以 5,000% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Dune（5,000%）。该市场总成交量已达 —，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。