
2027 Women's College Basketball National Champion
核心摘要
根据「2027 Women's College Basketball National Champion」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,Baylor 以压倒性的 4,950% 获胜概率主导市场;Duke 以 4,950% 位居第二,Iowa 以 4,950% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- Baylor (4,950%):Baylor 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,950¢,显示出市场的高度确信。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- Duke (4,950%):作为最可行的替代选项,Duke 保持着 4,950% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,950¢。
- Iowa (4,950%):以 4,950% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Iowa 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)
在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:
- 替代选项:包括 Louisville (4,950%)、LSU (4,950%),以及 Maryland (4,950%)。
- 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Michigan 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baylor | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 2 | Duke | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 3 | Iowa | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 4 | Louisville | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 5 | LSU | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 6 | Maryland | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 7 | Michigan | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 8 | Minnesota | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 9 | Ole Miss | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 10 | North Carolina | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 11 | NC State | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 12 | Notre Dame | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 13 | Nebraska | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 14 | Ohio State | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 15 | Oklahoma | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 16 | Oregon | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 17 | South Carolina | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 18 | TCU | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 19 | Texas | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 20 | Texas Tech | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 21 | UCLA | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 22 | UConn | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 23 | Kentucky | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 24 | USC | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 25 | Washington | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Tournament (the national champion).
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2027 tournament (e.g., they are eliminated or fail to qualify), the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
If the 2027 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no champion declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the NCAA (https://www.ncaa.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
常见问题
当前市场对「2027 Women's College Basketball National Champion」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,Baylor 以 4,950% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Duke(4,950%),以及 Iowa(4,950%)。该市场总成交量已达 —,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
