Precipitation in NYC in October?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Precipitation in NYC in October?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, <3" is dominating the market with an overwhelming 2,550% chance of winning. 4.25-4.75" follows in second place at 1,400%, while >6.25" sits in third with 1,400%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• <3" (2,550%): Currently commanding the highest probability, <3" is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 2,550¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 4.25-4.75" (1,400%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 4.25-4.75" maintains a 1,400% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 1,400¢.
• >6.25" (1,400%): Sitting in third place with a 1,400% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward >6.25", treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 3-4.25" (1,300%), 4.75-5.25" (1,300%), and 5.25-6.25" (1,300%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 3-4.25" are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between October 1 and October 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for October 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of October 2026.

If the relevant data is not available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.