Precipitation in Hong Kong in October?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Precipitation in Hong Kong in October?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, <20mm is dominating the market with an overwhelming 2,000% chance of winning. 70-120mm follows in second place at 1,700%, while 20-40mm sits in third with 1,100%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• <20mm (2,000%): Currently commanding the highest probability, <20mm is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 2,000¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $50 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 70-120mm (1,700%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 70-120mm maintains a 1,700% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 1,700¢.
• 20-40mm (1,100%): Sitting in third place with a 1,100% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 20-40mm, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 40-50mm (1,100%), 50-70mm (1,100%), and 120-210mm (1,055%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 210mm+ are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between October 1 and October 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.

If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in October 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.

If the relevant data is not available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.