Lennar Corp（LEN）の株式分析LENLennar Corp

🚨 Everyone is focused on circular financing in AI while completely missing what is happening in the housing market right now. The nation’s 2nd largest homebuilder is now selling its inventory to its own spinoff. According to Hunterbrook, Millrose Properties ($MRP) bought more than 700 Lennar ($LEN) homes across 15 states for roughly $200 million in about a month. Here’s what is really going on: Lennar spun off Millrose in 2025 as part of its move toward an asset-light business model. Rather than keeping large amounts of land on its balance sheet, Lennar could buy finished lots from Millrose as it needed them. Millrose would hold and develop the land, earning recurring returns for providing that capital. Lennar could then focus on building and selling homes. But an August 27 agreement amendment added another business: buying completed homes and operating them as rentals. So the company supplying Lennar with land can now also buy the finished houses. The timing is what makes this particularly interesting. Hunterbrook identified at least 356 purchases in the final week of Lennar’s fiscal third quarter. Lennar reported 20,840 deliveries against a forecast starting at 20,500. Subtract those purchases and deliveries would have been 20,484, below its target. Selling homes to Millrose can move inventory off Lennar’s books and support reported deliveries... But investors need to understand how much of that volume depends on this closely connected buyer. Then there are the rental economics. Hunterbrook estimates the homes could generate approximately 5% annually after property operating expenses, before financing and corporate costs. Millrose’s recent bond offering carried interest rates of 6.5%–6.75%. If those estimates are accurate, homes financed entirely at those rates would earn less operating income than their interest expense. The companies also remain closely connected. Hunterbrook reports that Lennar supplied 72% of Millrose’s revenue last quarter, while Lennar CEO Stuart Miller holds approximately 43% of Millrose’s voting power. All of this comes while Lennar’s business is already under pressure. Its latest quarterly results showed: • New orders down 9% • Deliveries down 3% • Average selling price falling to $372,000 from $383,000 • Home-sales gross margin falling to 15.8% from 17.5% • Net earnings declining to $284 million from $591 million Management said incentives averaged approximately 12% and lowered its full-year delivery target to 80,000–81,000 homes from 82,000–83,000. Lennar cited higher mortgage rates, weaker affordability, and deteriorating market conditions. $LEN is now down 38% in the last year. $MRP is down 25% in the last year.

$LEN The second largest home builder in the U.S., Lennar, is in a 2-year downtrend. It has been forced to cut prices or offer incentives to home buyers just to sell homes so it can build new ones. The problem is that new builds are still sitting vacant. Keep an eye on Lennar stock to get a pulse check on the residential real estate market. $DHI $RKT

LEN Stock Heads For Monthly Loss: CEO Warns Higher 'Interest Rates Test Affordability' After Weak Outlook $LEN $ITB $ICAP

$LEN Lennar sees Q4 new orders 19,500-20,500, deliveries 22,000-23,000 "Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2026, we expect to generate new orders of approximately 19,500 to 20,500 homes, and to deliver approximately 22,000 to 23,000 homes with gross margin of approximately 15.5% to 16.0%. We expect our average sales price to be in the range of approximately $370,000 to $380,000 and our SG&A to improve toward 8.7% to 9.0%. Given continued pressure on interest rates and the deterioration in market conditions through the quarter, we are moderating our target full-year 2026 deliveries to approximately 80,000 to 81,000 homes, from the 82,000 to 83,000 homes we discussed last quarter."

$LEN Not a good report from Lennar. Higher mortgage rates won't really hit until the next quarter though.