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Cox Automotive: September New Vehicle Sales Expected at 16.3M

September new-vehicle sales' seasonally adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, is expected to finish near 16.3M, down from last September's 16.6M rate and down from August's surprisingly strong 16.8M pace, according to Cox Automotive. Q3 sales volume is expected to reach 4.12M, down from Q2 and a year ago. However, Cox Automotive is adjusting its full-year forecast to 16.1M new-vehicle sales, up from 15.8M, as new-vehicle demand remains resilient. General Motors (GM) is expected to remain the top-selling automaker in both the third quarter and year-to-date, although its sales and market share have softened compared with a year ago, Cox stated. Toyota (TM) is forecast to post year-over-year growth in Q3 and continues to close the gap with GM, aided by gains in market share despite ongoing supply constraints for key models. Hyundai Motor (HYMLF) is also expected to deliver another strong quarter, with sales rising from both a year ago and the prior quarter and ahead of Ford Motor (F), Cox estimated. "The broader market story continues to be the growing and mostly on the strength of Asian automakers. Asian brands are expected to account for more than half of U.S. new-vehicle sales for a second consecutive quarter, approaching record-high market share levels. At the same time, brands from the traditional Detroit 3 are forecast to fall to just over 36% market share, the lowest level on record. With consumers continuing to migrate toward hybrid vehicles and passenger cars, segments where Asian manufacturers maintain significant advantages, the shift in market share is expected to continue through the remainder of the year," said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. Other publicly traded automakers include Honda (HMC), Lucid Group (LCID), Mercedes-Benz (MBGYY), Nissan (NSANY), Rivian (RIVN), Stellantis (STLA), Tesla (TSLA) and Volkswagen (VWAGY).