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Netflix Q3 Earnings Beat Expectations, Outlook Weak
"Now Streaming" is The Fly's weekly recap of the stories surrounding the biggest content streamers.PLAYING THIS WEEKEND:Among this weekend's most notable new streaming content is season three of Netflixromantic comedy series "Nobody Wants This," starring Kristen Bell and Adam Brody. Netflix subscribers can also catch the new season of French mystery thriller series "Lupin," while Prime Videousers can watch season two of action thriller series "The Terminal List," starring Chris Pratt and Taylor Kitsch.NETFLIX RESULTS:Earlier this week, Netflix reported better-than-expected Q3 earnings per share with revenue that was in-line with consensus estimates. Operating margin grew to 34.6% from 28.2% year-over-year, with the company noting that revenue growth was driven primarily by subscription revenue, reflecting increases in memberships and pricing, growth in advertising revenue and a favorable impact from F/X rates, net of hedging. Looking ahead, Netflix provided a downbeat outlook for Q4 earnings and revenue and a below-consensus revenue outlook for fiscal 2026.Following the report, at least a dozen securities analysts cut their price targets on the shares, with UBS saying that the Q3 results were in line on revenue with better expense-timing-driven profits, while softer Q4 guidance and weaker advertising point to 2026 revenue at the low end of guidance. Margins and long-term goals remain intact, with improved U.S. content execution, focused investment in core film/TV/live offerings, and a new Chief Content Officer key to restoring engagement and growth, the firm added.Additionally, Needham analyst Laura Martin downgraded Netflix to Hold from Buy without a price target. The company's FX-neutral revenue growth decelerated from 14% in Q1 to 12% in Q2 and to 11% in Q3, with single-digit revenue growth projected in FY27, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Netflix content problem "seems clear", and while the firm believes Peter Rice is "an excellent TV executive," it will take him about two years to fix the company's $20 billion content slate, Needham noted, stating that the strategic position at Netflix relative to YouTubeis deteriorating.COMCAST RESULTS:Comcastalso reported quarterly results this week, with adjusted earnings per share and revenue for the third quarter coming in ahead of consensus estimates. Of note, Comcast's Peacock streaming platform delivered EBITDA of $261M, increasing $478M year-over-year, with paid subscribers on the platform rising 17% year-over-year to 48M. Looking ahead, CFO Jason Armstrong said during the company's earnings call, "We're simplifying our organizational structure to move faster, improve execution, and operate more efficiently. As part of this transformation, we do expect to take a significant charge in the fourth quarter... We expect to have a significant charge in the fourth quarter related mostly to our transformation efforts, and I would quantify that at over $1 billion."Following the report, several analysts lowered their price targets on the stock, with Citi saying the upcoming "transformation activities" to which the company alluded are "apt to create some uncertainty on 2027 expectations." Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng lowered the firm's price target on Comcast to $23 from $24 and maintained a Neutral rating on the shares. The company's results demonstrated improving trends in Connectivity & Platforms segment EBITDA and broadband ARPU, which should continue in Q4 and provide confidence in Comcast's convergence strategy, the analyst tells investors in a research note. That said, broadband net losses missed and likely will continue to see pressure from increasing competition well the management focuses more on managing broadband as part of the overall converged relationship, the firm added.COMCAST JOB CUTS:Prior to the release of the Q3 print, Bloomberg's Kelcee Griffis reported that Comcast intends to cut a significant number of jobs as part of a broader overhaul of its cable TV, broadband, and wireless businesses. The reorganization is meant to put the company in a stronger position to operate as an independent entity after it spins off the NBCUniversal businesses in 2027, the author noted.SKYDANCE INVESTMENT:On Wednesday, John Malone said he predicts SpaceXcould invest $8B-$10B in Skydanceand secure a global content-output deal, helping David Ellison reduce the media company's debt burden while giving Elon Musk's company access to content and other assets, The Hollywood Reporter's Alex Weperin reported. "I think there's a deal coming there," Malone said at the Paley Center International Council Summit, pointing to the financial ties between Musk and Oraclefounder Larry Ellison, David Ellison's father and a major backer of Skydance. A day later, Semafor's Rohan Goswami reported that Elon Musk has invested roughly $1B in Skydance, according to people familiar with the matter.VERSANT/DISNEY:Versantannounced a licensing agreement to stream season one of E!'s The Golden Life on Hulu. The first two episodes will be available on Hulu and Hulu on Disney+for bundle subscribers in the U.S. beginning November 3, with remaining episodes available seven days after premiering on E!.FUBO/NBA:On Thursday, FuboTVannounced new distribution agreements for carriage of seven regional sports networks for the 2026-2027 National Basketball League season. The Fubo streaming service will continue to carry local coverage of the following teams in each respective market through new distribution agreements: Atlanta Hawks; Charlotte Hornets; Detroit Pistons; Miami HEAT; Milwaukee Bucks; Oklahoma City Thunder; Orlando Magic. Carriage of the Los Angeles Clippers was previously announced through a direct distribution agreement with the NBA and the team.STOCK PLAYS:Other publicly traded companies in the streaming space include Apple, AMC Networks, Fox, and Roku.
Paramount Reaches Settlement with Warner Bros, Commits to Increase Film Output
"Now Streaming" is The Fly's weekly recap of the stories surrounding the biggest content streamers.PLAYING THIS WEEKEND:Among this weekend's notable new streaming content is the first two episodes of Apple TVcomedy series "Brothers," starring Woody Harrelson and Matthew McConaughey as themselves. Meanwhile, Amazon Prime Videosubscribers can catch romantic comedy film "The Love Hypothesis" starring Tom Bateman and Lili Reinhart, while Netflixusers can watch the revival of comedy series "A Different World."PARAMOUNT/WARNER BROS.:Earlier this week, New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport said the state joined a coalition of 12 attorneys general in securing a settlement with Paramount Skydance, resolving the states' lawsuit alleging the company's merger with Warner Bros. Discoverywould harm competition. The settlement, pending approval by the court, includes a five-year court enforceable commitment to increase film output, a minimum of an additional $1.5B commitment to bolster domestic film production, a $47.5M fund for workers who are impacted by the merger, and restrictions on how the company handles cable negotiations to help keep prices competitive, Davenport said in a statement. Paramount has agreed to a five-year term, where the merged company will commit to release: 30 films a year, including 20 wide releases, in the first two years; 32 films a year - with 21 wide releases in years three, four, and five; and Paramount commits to release at least four independent films in each year of the commitment period.Following the settlement announcement, Semafor reported that Paramount is exploring additional equity funding to strengthen its balance sheet as it absorbs Warner Bros. Discovery, with CEO David Ellison considering Tesla'sElon Musk and other wealthy investors for a syndicate alongside substantial equity backing already guaranteed by Larry Ellison. A day after that report, Paramount announced the launch of syndication for a proposed senior secured incremental tranche of term "B" loans in an aggregate principal amount of $7.5B. The consummation of the Incremental Term B Facility is subject to market and other conditions. Subject to market and other conditions, Paramount intends to raise approximately $44.4B of additional secured debt, in addition to the Incremental Term B Facility and previously announced financings.Additionally, Business Insider reported that Paramount is preparing to launch new streaming features designed to drive engagement and increase revenue from viewers as it finalizes its takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery. The deal will give Paramount control of HBO Max and Discovery+. CEO David Ellison's company told streaming employees at a town hall this summer that Paramount+ is planning to add a free tier, micro dramas, and new interactive ad formats, the publication noted. Paramount is also preparing to put a comments section in its TikTok-style feed and leverage AI to help it clip videos, according to a screenshot of its streaming initiatives list recently viewed by Business Insider.DISNEY+ PRICE HIKES:Disneyraised prices on several of its streaming subscriptions, Bloomberg reported this week. The price of the flagship Disney+ streaming service, without ads, will rise 13% to $21.49 per month, sources told Bloomberg. The increase will bring the premium Disney+ product more in line with a similar plan sold by Netflix, which charges $26.99 a month for an ad-free service with 4K resolution and access on multiple devices, the report noted.AMAZON/BEST BUY:Best Buyand Amazon announced an expanded multiyear Fire TV partnership that will continue bringing the Fire TV experience to Insignia TVs and create more connected TV advertising opportunities through Best Buy Ads, powered by Amazon Ads technology. Beginning February 2027, Best Buy Ads will use Amazon Ads' programmatic technology, including AI-powered tools, to help brands plan, activate, optimize and measure advertising campaigns.NETFLIX DOWNGRADE:Earlier this week, HSBC downgraded Netflix to Hold from Buy with a price target of $76, down from $96. The firm believes Alphabet'sYouTube is taking increasing viewer share from Netflix. A Near-term engagement recovery is unlikely at Netflix as YouTube's strategy shift adds to its competitive headwinds, the analyst tells investors in a research note. HSBC says YouTube has been rapidly expanding its living room footprint, having captured a record 14.2% share of U.S. TV time in July. The firm believes YouTube's momentum is increasingly coming at the expense of Netflix as its share fell to a multi-year low of 7.8%.STOCK PLAYS:Other publicly traded companies in the streaming space include Roku, AMC Networks, Comcast, Fox, and FuboTV.
Disney Signs Content Deal with YouTube Star 'Like Nastya'
"Now Streaming" is The Fly's weekly recap of the stories surrounding the biggest content streamers.PLAYING THIS WEEKEND:Among this weekend's most notable new streaming content is the sixth season of Apple TV'sBritish spy thriller "Slow Horses", starring Gary Oldman. Meanwhile, AmazonPrime Video subscribers can catch "Neagley", a spinoff from action crime series "Reacher", starring Maria Sten. Netflixhas also released "Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story", the fourth installment in Ryan Murphy and Ian Brennan's anthology series about infamous killers. Additionally, Peacocksubscribers can watch "The Traitors: New Blood", the first season of the reality hit featuring 'everyday Americans' rather than celebrity contestants.PARAMOUNT, COMCAST EXPLORE OPTIONS FOR SKYSHOWTIME:Comcast and Paramount Skydancearestreaming service SkyShowtime, The Hollywood Reporter's Alex Weprin reported Monday. The board of the JV informed SkyShowtime CEO Monty Sarhan of the strategic review Monday in a letter. "SkyShowtime operates in one of the most competitive markets in our industry. Despite the excellent work of the team and the strength of what you and the team have built, the landscape continues to evolve rapidly, and remains highly challenging," the board's letter stated. "Against that backdrop, SkyShowtime's shareholders are commencing a review of strategic options for the business, which includes the possibility of a wind down. No decisions have been made, and all options remain under consideration."DISNEY, 'LIKE NASTYA' SIGN CONTENT DEAL:Disneyhas signed awith YouTube star 'Like Nastya', expanding its kids-content pipeline through a new Disney Jr./Disney+ animated preschool series, additional live-action programming, and a curated library collection, Variety's Joe Otterson reported Thursday. 'Like Nastya' currently operates more than 25 YouTube channels, with more than 450 million subscribers across all of them, Variety noted.NETFLIX DOWNGRADE:Wells Fargo downgraded Netflix toWells said the company's engagement trends "look worrying." Wells believes Netflix's originals content slate is weaker in the second half of 2026 versus prior periods. Its base case is the company's top 100 originals hours will be down 21% year-over-year. Wells cited engagement risk for the downgrade.Meanwhile, Evercore ISI raised the firm's price target on Netflix to $110 from $100 and kept an Outperform rating on the shares. Recent surveys in the U.S. and Japan demonstrate multi-year highs in penetration rates as Netflix's positioning is showing signs of strength, the analyst said.AMAZON, NETFLIX, GOOGLE FORM SACA:Amazon, Netflix, and YouTubeare joining forces through TechNet's newto advocate for consumer access to online content and greater choice in streaming services, The Wall Street Journal's Elias Schisgall reported Monday. The new coalition will be led by TechNet Senior Vice President of Federal Policy and Government Relations Mike Ward. "Americans want more content choices and flexibility in how and where they watch their favorite programming, including sports and other live events," Ward said. "The industry and its customers deserve a dedicated voice in Washington, D.C., advocating for policies that enable innovation and address the needs of today's consumers."PARAMOUNT SKYDANCE INITATIONS:Citizens initiated coverage of Paramount Skydance withCitizens expects the company's deal with Warner Bros.will close, and that the combined business will possess one of the most expansive libraries of high-quality IP and content in entertainment, the analyst said. There is a credible path to management's financial and leverage targets through achievable underlying growth and $6B+ of cost synergies, the firm added.Barclays reinstated coverage of Paramount Skydance with an Underweight rating and $8 price target. The Paramount-Warner merger can create "growth optionality" in streaming and studios, but executing on this while being "straitjacketed by synergy and deleveraging goals is likely to be difficult," the analyst said. The firm believes further asset restructuring may be inevitable over time. Barclays also reinstated coverage of Warner Bros. Discovery with an Equal Weight rating and $29 price target.FOX INITIATION:Citizens also initiated coverage of Fox Corp.withCitizens said Fox is well positioned in the industry and that Fox's differentiated focus on must-watch live sports and news has largely insulated it from the costly scripted-content streaming wars, while supporting durable engagement, premium monetization, and strong distributor leverage, the analyst said.STOCK PLAYS:Other publicly traded companies in the streaming space include Roku, AMC Networksand FuboTV.
Citi Raises Netflix Price Target to $100
"Now Streaming" is The Fly's weekly recap of the stories surrounding the biggest content streamers.PLAYING THIS WEEKEND:Among this weekend's most notable new streaming content is the new season of Peacockmockumentary sitcom "The Paper," starring Domhnall Gleeson. Meanwhile, Hulusubscribers can catch the new season of reality show "The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives."NETFLIX/CITI:Citi noted last week that Netflixannounced price hikes in the United Kingdom, Germany, and Austria affecting about 36% of EMEA subscribers and about 12% of total subscribers. However, local consumer protection laws in Germany and Austria generally require notice and affirmative consent before price increases can be implemented, which may result in a longer-than-typical rollout period and delayed benefit, the analyst told investors. Citi has Buy rating and $100 price target on Netflix shares.NETFLIX/BOX OFFICE NUMBERS:Netflix intends to report box office grosses for a number of its upcoming film releases, including "La Bola Negra" and "Narnia: The Magician's Nephew," Variety's Matt Donnelly reported this week. Previously, the streaming giant has featured limited releases for award season contenders, but now numerous film industry "power players" have told Variety that Netflix is inching closer toward embracing longer theatrical runs for its films.NETFLIX/FLORIDA:Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier on Wednesday filed a lawsuit against Netflix, alleging the streaming company spent years promising Florida families a paid, ad-free service that would not collect or sell their data-then tracked children on kids profiles and launched the advertising business it vowed never to create. According to the complaint, Netflix's chief executive told the public, "We don't collect anything," and said the company was a "safe respite" where families could "relax and have none of the controversy around exploiting users with advertising." The complaint alleges those representations were a bait-and-switch. The State alleges that Netflix records billions of behavioral events-what devices Floridians and their children use, where they are when they use them, and what content they watch, pause, rewind, search, skip, and abandon-then uses that information to train algorithms and power advertising. The lawsuit alleges Netflix misled parents about kids profiles. The lawsuit charges Netflix with violating the Florida Deceptive and Unfair Trade Practices Act and the Florida Digital Bill of Rights, including by selling sensitive personal data collected from known children without prior consent. The Attorney General seeks a permanent injunction, an order requiring Netflix to purge data deceptively collected from Floridians, an end to dark-pattern designs that keep children watching, civil penalties, and other relief authorized by Florida law.DISNEY+ MARGINS:During the Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology conference, Disney CFO Hugh Johnston said Disney+ had 13% margins last quarter, adding that the company believes it will "certainly" finish the year with double-digit margins. Johnston also noted that a free streaming service will add to its portfolio, especially as offering a free channel offers the company an opportunity to bring more people in.PARAMOUNT/BONTA:Paramount Skydanceis arguing that California AG Rob Bonta's public comments undermine his legal opposition to Paramount's $1.88B bond request, potentially strengthening its position as it seeks protection against costs from the state-led challenge to its Warner Bros. Discoverymerger, Reuters' Jody Godoy reported. Paramount has said a bond is necessary so the company can recover losses if it wins cases brought by a California-led group of states and the Writers Guild of America.DOJ EXTENDS FOX-ROKU MERGER WAITING PERIOD:In a regulatory filing, Fox Corporationdisclosed that consummation of the merger with Rokuremains subject to the satisfaction or waiver of customary closing conditions, including the expiration or termination of the applicable waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976, as amended. "On September 8, 2026, as expected, each of FOX and Roku received a request for additional information and documentary material from the U.S. Department of Justice in connection with the DOJ's review of the Mergers. Issuance of the Second Request extends the waiting period under the HSR Act until 30 days after both FOX and Roku have substantially complied with the Second Request, unless the waiting period is terminated earlier by the DOJ or FOX and Roku otherwise agree to extend the waiting period. FOX and Roku will continue to work cooperatively with the DOJ in its review of the Mergers. FOX expects the Mergers to be consummated by the first half of calendar year 2027, subject to the expiration or termination of the waiting period under the HSR Act and the satisfaction or waiver of other customary closing conditions, including approvals by FOX and Roku stockholders," the company stated in its filing.STOCK PLAYS:Other publicly traded companies in the streaming space include AMC Global Media, Amazon, Apple, and FuboTV.
AMC Networks Reaches $120 Million Settlement Agreement with Multiple Parties
In a regulatory filing, AMC Networks said that on September 4, the company entered into a settlement agreement with Robert Kirkman, Robert Kirkman, LLC, Glen Mazzara, 44 Strong Productions, Inc., David Alpert, Circle of Confusion Productions, LLC, New Circle of Confusion Productions, Inc., Charles Eglee, United Bongo Drum, Inc.; Gale Anne Hurd, and Valhalla Entertainment, Inc. f/k/a Valhalla Motion Pictures, Inc. resolving claims for breach of contract. The Settlement Agreement provides for total consideration of $120M to the Plaintiffs consisting of (i) a cash payment of $85M by September 18, 2026 and (ii) $35M to be paid no later than January 31, 2027, which $35M payment will be treated as an advance against Modified Adjusted Gross Receipts participation amounts that will accrue to the Plaintiffs under contractual arrangements relating to The Walking Dead and Fear The Walking Dead. The Plaintiffs will continue to receive ordinary course Modified Adjusted Gross Receipts participation on a go-forward basis, offset by the advance. With regard to the Settlement Payment, the company is taking a charge of approximately $85M in the quarter ending September 30, 2026 in consideration for the dismissal of the actions with prejudice. The company now expects to generate approximately $150M of free cash flow in 2026, which includes the cash settlement payment of $85M, net of the related income tax benefit. Excluding the aforementioned one-time items, free cash flow guidance for 2026 would remain unchanged. The company's adjusted operating income will not be impacted by the settlement. There is no change to the company's previously issued outlook for revenue and adjusted operating income.
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