Análisis de la acción Coherent Corp (COHR)COHRCoherent Corp

LITE, COHR, AAOI, POET Rise Overnight After Lumentum CEO Says Optical Parts Are ‘Completely Sold Out’ Through Early 2029 $LITE $COHR $AAOI $POET

#USOpticalCommunicationStocksCloseLower $ALAB $LITE $COHR Good morning ☕ On October 7, the Nasdaq fell only 0.22%, but optical module stocks dropped 9% to 12%. When the index barely moves while one sector gets hit this hard, it is usually not market panic but a crowded trade being trimmed. I cannot prove what the reason is, and I would rather say that than invent one. What I can do is check which of these charts are still healthy. Here is my traffic light. 🟢 LITE: strongest trend, but farthest from safety Price is around 1,111, and the 14, 21, and 35 moving averages are in a bullish alignment and still rising, at 1,054, 1,013, and 971 RSI is around 67.6, MACD is still positive, and the histogram is expanding Resistance is 1,172.5, about 5.5% higher The issue is that the purple support has been down at 860.7, about 22% lower. That is not a level I can use for a tight stop My view: the trend is healthy, but this is the most expensive one to chase. It has already risen about 85% from a low near 600, so I would only enter on a pullback to the moving averages. 🟡 ALAB: strong chart, but a rejection pattern has appeared Price is around 381.8, and the most recent 4H candle rose about 2.2%, so the rebound has already started It pushed up to around 400 and then met strong selling, so that is a ceiling to respect Resistance is 386.4, only 1.2% above price. The moving averages are at 364 and 362.7, and support is 339.2 RSI is around 63.5, and MACD is flat My view: the rebound is real, but price is sitting just below resistance after a rejection wick. This is a spot for patience, not chasing. 🔴 COHR: weakest momentum of the three Price is around 333.2, right near its 14 moving average at 333.7. The 21 moving average is 331.3, and the 35 moving average is 315.2 MACD has crossed down, and the histogram is negative, so even though RSI is still around 61, momentum is weakening Resistance is 343.6, about 3% higher. Support is 320.3, about 4% lower My view: this is the one where the pullback has done the most damage to structure. It has not broken yet, but before relying on it, I want it to prove itself first. What they have in common All three are still above their 35 moving averages, and none has broken major support. So the trend is bent, but not broken. This drop looks like a shakeout of a crowded trade rather than a change in the underlying logic, which also matches what I saw in the same sector earlier this year: a sharp one-day drop, no company-specific bad news, and then an attempt to recover. Macro level admin question These are high-multiple growth stocks, and the Fed is in a rate hike cycle. Rate expectations hit this kind of stock first. With CPI on October 14 and the Fed decision on October 28, a hot print could push the sector down again, while a calm print would give support a chance to hold. Is the bad news already priced in? The rate path is priced in, but surprises are not. Another point worth noting: NVDA made a new high earlier this week while these stocks were sold off, which tells me money is rotating within the AI trade, not leaving it. This is my guess from the charts, not a fact. My plan 4H, my personal view, not advice COHR: Pullback long: 322 to 320.3 Stop: 4H close below 314.5, under the 35 moving average TP1: 331.3, about 1.6R TP2: 343.6, about 3.5R Breakout version: 4H close above 343.6 and hold, then look toward 350 If 314.5 breaks: stay out, or short after a failed retest, targeting 308, then 300 LITE: Pullback long: 1,055 to 1,045, the 14 moving average area Stop: 4H close below 1,005 TP1: 1,110, about 1.4R TP2: 1,172.5, about 2.7R TP3: 1,200 Breakout version: 4H close above 1,172.5, then I would trail the stop below the 14 moving average instead of guessing a target If 1,005 breaks: stay out, or short, targeting 971, then 900 ALAB: Pullback long: 364 to 362.7, the 14 and 21 moving averages Stop: 4H close below 355 TP1: 381.8, about 2.2R TP2: 386.4, about 2.7R TP3: 400, about 4.3R Breakout version: 4H close above 386.4 and hold, then look toward 400 If 355 breaks: stay out, or short, targeting 340 Keep position size smaller, use low leverage, and place orders at key levels. Stocks do not trade 24/7, so gaps can jump past stops, which is why my size here is smaller than when I trade crypto. My check result: stay calm, keep size light, spot position unchanged, intentionally hold cash. After a day like October 7, I would rather position early at a level than act one candle late. One-line ranking: LITE for trend, ALAB for rebound, COHR conservative. Which light do you trust most?

$COHR Coherent initiated with an Outperform at Bernstein Bernstein initiated coverage of Coherent with an Outperform rating and a $350 price target. The firm rolled out coverage of the U.S. networking group with a positive view. Networking and optical companies will be "structural winners" within AI infrastructure, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Bernstein believes there is more upside than downside to AI spend expectations, and sees the risk/rewards on exposed stocks as positive. While an overbuild is still possible, demand continues to exceed supply and the assumptions needed to underwrite continued investments do not appear aggressive compared to the pace of adoption, the firm contends.

Watch $COHR for a bounce here at trendline support plus the 200 DMA. Rosenblatt just maintained their $500 price target on the company.

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