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Take-Two Expects GTA VI to Reach 10 Million Views on Day One
"Odds On" is The Fly's weekly series diving into the most interesting bets on events trading platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood. Subscribers, add $EBET to your Fly portfolios for alerts on news about events trading.THE BACKGROUND:Rockstar Games released Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look on August 27, giving the most substantial official look yet at the long-awaited game. The 27-minute video is made up entirely of in-game footage captured on PlayStation 5, according to Rockstar. It premiered on Netflixat 3 p.m. ET before being released on Rockstar's YouTube channel and the official GTA VI website later that evening. With a release date of November 19, the extended look arrives less than three months before launch. Take-Two, Rockstar's parent company, is counting on the game to become a massive driver of bookings and engagement. The Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look video currently has 8.2M views on YouTube.THE BET:Polymarket offers "# of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look on day 1?" with a volume of $584,396.Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 22% chance that Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look gets less than 10M views on day one. The "Yes" contract was last trading at 23.9c, while the "No" contract stood at 79c.There is currently a 76% chance that Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look gets 10M-15M views on day one. The "Yes" contract was last trading at 78c, while the "No" contract stood at 27c.Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 2% chance that Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look gets 15M-20M views on day one. The "Yes" contract was last trading at 2.6c, while the "No" contract stood at 99.5c.THE RULES:This market will resolve according to the number of views the Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look video gets in the first 24 hours after being posted on the Rockstar Games YouTube channel. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is Rockstar Games', specifically the views counter for the described video.
Microsoft's Halo: Campaign Evolved Sells 1.2M Units
"Game On" is The Fly's weekly recap of the stories powering up or beating down video game stocks.'HALO' REMAKE SALES:Microsoft'slatest Xbox Game Studios-published title "Halo: Campaign Evolved" has sold 1.2M units since its release two weeks ago, according to Alinea Analytics' Rhys Elliottt. About 42% of copies were purchased on Xbox Series X/S and Windows PC, 41% were bought on PlayStation 5, and 17% were purchased on Steam.NETFLIX STUDIO CLOSURES:Netflixclosed two video game studios, including "Unhinged" and "Oxenfree" developer Night School and Helsinki-based studio Moonloot, which was founded in 2022, Gamefile's Stephen Totilo reported last week. Night School released horror game "Unhinged" onto Netflix just six weeks ago, Totilo note. "We see an opportunity to be more focused in our execution, so we are making organizational changes to the business to match those priorities," a Netflix spokesperson told Game File, with the company attributing the studio closures to a prioritization around children's games, party games, and more mainstream content.NINTENDO/CITI:Citi analyst Tokiya Baba raised the firm's price target on Nintendoto 9,800 yen from 9,300 yen and maintained a Buy rating on the shares. The firm views the company's Q2 report as strong and views next Nintendo Direct as a potential catalyst for the shares.'POKOPIA' SALES:Nintendo and The Pokemon Company announced that global sales of the "Pokemon Pokopia" game have surpassed 5M units across physical and digital versions, just over four months after its launch on March 5, 2026. The game is available exclusively for the Nintendo Switch 2 system.
Take-Two Reports Better-Than-Expected Q1 Earnings, Reiterates FY27 Net Bookings Outlook of $8.0 to $8.2 Billion
"Game On" is The Fly's weekly recap of the stories powering up or beating down video game stocks.NEW RELEASES:This week's most notable new release is Electronic Arts' football sim "Madden NFL 27," which releases for PlayStation 5and Xbox Series X/Son August 13.'GTA VI' EXTENDED LOOK:Last Thursday, Take-Two'sRockstar Games announced that "Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look" will premiere on NetflixThursday, August 27 at 3 p.m. ET and will also launch on the official Rockstar Games YouTube channel and the "Grand Theft Auto VI" site at 9 p.m. ET on August 27. "Grand Theft Auto VI" is coming November 19 to PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S, the company added.Following the news, Raymond James said it views the announcement as further confirmation of the November 19 date and now sees the chance of a delay as "de minimis." The firm maintained a Strong Buy rating on Take-Two.TAKE-TWO RESULTS:Meanwhile, Take-Two reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings and net bookings last week, though bookings did decline 3% year-over-year. Strauss Zelnick, Chairman and CEO of Take-Two Interactive, stated: "Our excellent first quarter results reflect the power of our portfolio and disciplined execution across all of our labels. With these positive trends and excitement around the November 19th launch of Grand Theft Auto VI, we are reiterating our Fiscal 2027 Net Bookings outlook of $8.0 to $8.2 billion. Looking further ahead, we expect to sustain this new level of scale and generate strong cash flows, setting us on a path to deliver continued growth and long-term shareholder returns."NINTENDO RESULTS:Nintendoalso reported Q1 results last week, with earnings per share growing year-over-year while revenue slipped as the same quarter last year saw the launch of the Switch 2. Looking ahead, the company reaffirmed its FY27 net sales and Switch 2 hardware sales guidance, anticipating 16.5M Switch 2 units sold during the fiscal year."In our dedicated video game platform business in the first quarter of the fiscal year, Nintendo Switch 2 hardware maintained strong sales momentum, with sales totaling 3.82M units," the company said. "Looking at Nintendo Switch 2 software, titles such as Yoshi and the Mysterious Book, released in May, and Star Fox, released in June, performed steadily, and Pokemon Pokopia, released in the previous fiscal year, also sold well, with the result that Nintendo Switch 2 software sales totaled 9.46M units. As for Nintendo Switch, hardware sales totaled 0.66M units. Looking at Nintendo Switch software, Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream, released in April, has shown strong growth with sales reaching 7.94 million units. Given that consumers can play both Nintendo Switch 2 exclusive software and Nintendo Switch software with Nintendo Switch 2, Nintendo Switch titles released in past fiscal years have also shown stable sales. As a result, Nintendo Switch software sales totaled 33.81M units.""Turning to the digital business for our dedicated video game platforms, digital sales totaled 132.7B yen, up 90.0% year-on-year, mainly due to an increase in sales of downloadable versions of packaged software," Nintendo continued. "In our IP related business, sales reached 34.8B yen, up 107.4% year-on-year, thanks to the high level of audience engagement with The Super Mario Galaxy Movie. The end result is that overall sales totaled 517.8B yen. Although sales decreased compared to the same period of last fiscal year, operating profit increased 150.5% year-on-year to 142.5B yen, due to the growth in sales of software, which accounted for a larger proportion of total sales, and the refund of IEEPA tariffs in the US, which were recorded as cost of sales in prior periods. Ordinary profit totaled 206.1B yen, including 30.3B yen in share of profit of entities accounted for using equity method, foreign exchange gains of 16.8B yen, and interest income of 13.1B yen. Profit attributable to owners of parent totaled 147.4B yen."MORE VIDEO GAME NEWS:Ryan Cohen's GameStopis considering withdrawing its $56B bid for eBay,In a social media post, Georgia Attorney General Chris Carr called RobloxNintendo plans toin December 2026Microsoft's Halo Studios laid off staff less than a week after the developer released "Halo: Campaign Evolved,"Mike York, a former Rockstar Games animator who worked on "Grand Theft Auto V," said he "would not be shocked at all" if the Take-Two subsidiary opted to delay "Grand Theft Auto VI" another six months,
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