Super Micro Computer Inc（SMCI）股票分析SMCISuper Micro Computer Inc

$SMCI Daily. Are we sure about the veracity of this firm, given multi-year accounting issues? The market wants to buy the bullish AI news, but bigger earnings reports are coming up. $38 resistance.

Bought put options on $SMCI at the open — possibly the easiest trade this month.

$SMCI with $19B in revenue this Q, SMCI will have more AI revenue than DELL. We probably see the current ~$70B revenue guide raised well above DELL's $74B AI server annual guide. DELL is set to add $23B to its market cap today based off of SMCI's beat, roughly equivalent to the market cap of SMCI.

$SMCI what is the upside? DELL trades at 20x 2026 EPS, HPE at 16x, and SMCI at about 4x. SMCI's largest customer is SPCX and has the greatest upside to estimates, yet it is the cheapest. A new CFO and better governance mean that if the ~75-80% discount disappears, this goes from the mid $30s to ~$150. I expect we will see very active options trading tomorrow. 5x EPS is $48, 7x EPS (where this traded as of today pre-update) is $60. People can reasonably buy options 50%+ OTM for pennies that may be ITM within weeks.

Asian markets opened strong today: Samsung rose 5% and SK Hynix gained 7%, storage chips rebounded across the board, Super Micro surged 16% after hours on the AI server side, and Nvidia moved as well — a sign that capital hasn't left, it's just rotating. On crypto, BTC touched 83K and got pushed back, now hovering near 82K. Ethereum followed to 2450, and SOL, XRP, and BNB are all moving up modestly — more of a "catching a breath alongside the leader" situation. A few key points: First, oil prices dropped sharply overnight, with Brent briefly falling below 110, easing inflation pressure for now — a positive for risk assets. Second, US earnings season is beating expectations: SpaceX revenue surged 161%, AI revenue up ninefold, and Musk even floated a merger with Tesla — the market always buys that story. Third, and most importantly: the Fed meeting on October 28 — prediction markets now put the probability of holding steady at 87%, with one more hike likely in December. In other words, liquidity won't tighten further in the short term, but it won't loosen either — the market is range-trading in this narrow gap. Altcoins are clearly diverging. The AI sector is holding up relatively well, DePIN is still drifting lower, ARB just finished its unlock and is absorbing sell pressure in Layer2, while SUI shows some relative strength with ETFs quietly accumulating. Overall altcoin elasticity hasn't returned yet, ETF outflows continue, and BTC and ETH saw nearly $600M in combined outflows last week — institutions haven't really come back. I don't think now is the time to go all in, but it's not the time to be fully in cash either. If BTC holds 80K, bulls are still in play; if it can't clear 83K, don't chase — wait for a pullback to the 79-80K area to see if there's support. Among altcoins, AI narratives and relatively strong names can be positioned in small size, but don't use leverage — derivatives liquidations are too aggressive right now, with over $300M wiped out in a day. Longs deserve to survive too. In one sentence: macro is catching its breath, capital is rotating, don't chase highs, wait for pullbacks, keep an eye on AI and storage as the two main themes, and wait for BTC to hold above 83K before talking about a full-scale altcoin offensive. $SOL (SOLUSDT)