Nomura Holdings Inc（NMR）股票分析NMRNomura Holdings Inc

$NMR Update #NMR has found good support here. We can see a 50%+ move from this level ✍🏻 #NMRUSDT #NMRBTC #BTC #Bitcoin #NFTs

This recent batch of exchange listings got hit hard, and it's all because of the BTC crash. BTC was generally weak or choppy at the time (mostly -2% to -3% or near flat), so the relative performance of these coins is more telling. The real outperformers fell into two groups: those that already had a narrative or hype before listing (like KAIA), and those that got beaten down before listing and then bounced after listing (BR, NMR, XDP). Those that had already pumped hard before listing (POD +137%) were more prone to profit-taking after listing. Names like PONS, CASHCAT, and AIA that kept falling after listing show that a listing alone doesn't bring enough buying pressure — the market cares more about pre-listing token structure and narrative. Summary of the pattern from this data: a Korean exchange listing does not equal an automatic pump. The effect depends heavily on pre-listing price action and token distribution. Coins that already surged before listing are more likely to pull back after. Coins that were weak or ranging before listing may actually show relative strength after. In a weak BTC environment, coins that can relatively outperform are worth watching more closely, as it suggests independent buying pressure or narrative support.

$NMR dropped more than 20% in a day, with volume about 4x the usual, and the feed is full of people chasing the dip and calling for a bounce. I just want to ask one thing: has the AI narrative run out of steam lately? Not long ago, anything AI-related could fly, and $NMR still had a 24% gain over seven days. Yesterday it was one of the hottest names in the sector, and today it printed a big red candle. Hot money has no patience. Over there, RWA, privacy, and even old memes are running, while here AI has stalled and funds are turning away. I can't say for sure whether this is a shakeout or a trend change, but a drop like this with volume like this doesn't look like retail selling. Is this real or just a story? A large part of the AI theme is just riding the narrative. $NMR at least has some connection, but don't treat every dip as a bargain. Cheap and a trap are two different things. $NMR

The Fear & Greed Index is still at 64. Why is the most important question right now not "can it still go up" but "if I'm wrong, where do I exit?" The answer is in the $SO data: current price 113.49, MA5=114.588 has crossed below MA20=115.606, MACD histogram -0.06815 is bearish, RSI=27.4 is approaching oversold, price is hugging the lower Bollinger Band at 113.993, and the amplitude over the last 30 candles is about 5.18%. This is a weak downward structure, but short-term it has already entered an oversold + band-hugging state, so chasing shorts has poor risk-reward, and betting on a bounce is more reasonable. The funding rate of +0.0028% shows longs are still paying, sentiment has not been fully flushed out, so only light position and quick trades are appropriate. Direction is long (bounce repair). Entry reference 113.0-113.6, reason: the lower Bollinger Band at 113.993 overlaps with the current price and provides support, RSI 27.4 is in oversold territory. Take-profit 1 at 115.6, reason: the MA20 level, the first resistance. Take-profit 2 at 117.2, reason: upper Bollinger Band 117.219, reference for the bounce limit. Stop-loss at 112.3, reason: a break below the lower band and loss of the prior low structure would mean the oversold signal is invalid and bears are accelerating, so exit is required. Worst-case scenario: if it breaks below 112.3 and RSI continues to flatten near 20, there is no moving-average support below, and amplitude above 5% means it could move another 3-5 points in a single day, so position size must be kept within 5% of total capital. Exit signal is clear: if the closing price cannot reclaim above 113.9, or the MACD histogram continues to expand negatively, leave unconditionally. Also watch: $STR, $NMR. The former has RSI 79.1, severely overbought, while the latter has RSI 40.7, relatively weak. The divergence in strength is obvious, so it is not suitable to spread positions. (Personal view, for reference only, not any investment advice. Contract risk is extremely high, please strictly control position size.) [Data] Coin: SOLUSDT Direction: Long Entry: 113.0-113.6 Take-profit 1: 115.6 Take-profit 2: 117.2 Stop-loss: 112.3

I went all in on my position this time. For $NMR, I chose the short side. The order is already in the market. I didn’t leave myself much room to back out. From what the chart is showing, the rebound looks a bit weak, the upside resistance hasn’t been cleared, and selling pressure is still coming out. I keep feeling there may be another sharper drop ahead, so after not hesitating for long, I opened the short. I’ll hold the position first and see. What gives me the most relief right now is that price hasn’t hit my liquidation line yet. Luck has been somewhat on my side this time. Next, it depends on whether the overnight market cooperates. If it keeps moving down in the direction I expect, then when I open my eyes tomorrow morning, maybe I’ll see an extra profit in my account. That said, going all in on a direction is still very aggressive. The risk of liquidation is always hanging overhead. I’m just recording my own choice, not telling anyone to follow it. The market never lacks opportunities. What it lacks is people who can survive long enough to wait for the next one. I hope luck doesn’t slip away halfway through and lets this short land smoothly. #OKXNOW: Ushering in a new era of all-weather markets #BTC whale selling pressure weakens, ETF inflows stay positive for three straight weeks #September FOMC meeting minutes are about to be released, will rate hikes continue?