KANZHUN LIMITED（BZ）股票分析BZKANZHUN LIMITED

CPI came out overnight, and something strange happened. US Treasury yields spiked to 5.33% last night, then dropped straight back to 5.11% this morning. Money got cheaper, and BTC should have caught a breather. Instead, BTC didn't rise. It's still falling, now at 81k. The key is how Treasury yields came down. If inflation cools and people think rates won't rise further, Treasury yields fall. That's good news, money dares to come out and play, and BTC rises with it. Today isn't that. Today stocks crashed, and people got scared and rushed money into Treasuries. Once money crowds in, yields get pushed down. Last night the Nasdaq fell 1.9%, its worst day since July. Today Asia kept crashing, with South Korea's market falling as much as 8% intraday, and Samsung and SK Hynix both down more than 10%. The AI sector got hammered badly. AI companies building data centers mostly borrow money. When rates rise, borrowing gets more expensive, and they're the first to struggle. This time BTC wasn't treated as a safe haven. It was sold off along with tech stocks. Those mining companies that shifted to AI computing power fell as much as 13% last night. So today's drop in Treasury yields isn't good news for BTC. It shows the market is afraid. Oil hasn't eased either. Brent is still around 105 dollars, and things have flared up again near Hormuz. Today the International Energy Agency is meeting in Paris to discuss whether to release another 100 million barrels of emergency reserves. If they do, oil prices could ease a bit, and that's the only good news to hope for right now. I said before that Treasury yields falling back below 5.2% is a signal for BTC to move up. Today the number hit that, but this time I don't accept it. The reason for the drop is wrong. For a real rise, oil has to come down first, then inflation follows, then Treasury yields fall. One link after another. Until then, BTC is still following tech stocks. First watch 80k. #SeptemberCPIIncomingHowWillOilAndTreasuryYieldsMove $BTC

The September CPI number is out, and everyone has seen it. But the real problem isn't the number itself — it's oil, and that situation can't be solved anytime soon. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked. Shipping capacity is far below pre-war levels, and the major banks say it won't improve in the short term. OPEC isn't planning to increase production either. Several institutions expect a return to oversupply only next year. As long as oil stays high, inflation stays stuck. There's something many people haven't figured out here. Fed rate hikes can address people buying too much, but they can't fix a blocked strait. Oil is expensive not because demand is strong, but because supply is cut off. So rate hikes can't bring oil down, but the crypto market can't escape the hit from rate hikes. After the data came out, the probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 20% to 50%. US Treasuries hit 5.3%, a level not seen since 2002. People originally thought December, now it could come this month. These past two days, finance accounts are all talking about rate hikes. Few mention the strait — that's the root of it. So don't wait for one big green candle to fill the gap back in. This kind of market grinds down slowly. A sharp drop is easier to handle — the scary part is losing a little each day. For BTC, I'm still watching the 80K level. If it dips there, I'll buy. If it can't hold, I'll accept it and look at the next step down. #SeptemberCPI #Oil #Treasuries

September CPI comes out tonight at 8:30. Everyone in crypto is waiting for this number. Oil is stuck around $100, so headline CPI rising is a given, and the market expects around 3.7%. The real focus is core CPI. If that can't be contained, a December rate hike is unavoidable. The 10-year Treasury is at 5.2%, so money can just sit there and earn that yield. Nobody wants to take risks in crypto. BTC is at 84k now and has been grinding here for the past two days. My read is that after the data drops, it dips first, and the 82k area is the first level to watch. If it wicks down and gets pulled back, it's fine. If it can't hold, this round has to look for support lower. Honestly, I really dislike these data-waiting days. The whole day the chart is dead, and there's nowhere to act even if I want to. Before 8:30 tonight, keep position size lighter. The dip is the spot to get in, don't run out with everyone else. #SeptemberCPI #Oil #TreasuryYields $BTC

Tonight at 8:30 PM the CPI comes out. For Bitcoin, there's really only one number that matters: core CPI. August core was 2.4%, and the expectation is still 2.4%. Everyone is watching whether headline CPI pushes toward 3.7%, but that rise is mainly from expensive oil — Brent is at $106 now. What really decides where Bitcoin goes is the core number. If core comes in at 2.5% or above, it means oil has started to seep into other things. Shipping, wages, and various goods gradually follow higher, and the Fed feels more confident raising rates. If Treasury yields push to 5.3%, Bitcoin at 84k becomes easier, and it will most likely look downward. If core stays at 2.4%, then this round is just about oil. The meeting at the end of the month most likely won't hike, Treasury yields can catch a breather, and Bitcoin also has a chance to relax a bit. Why does the Fed watch core so closely? It was scared by the 1970s. In '73 it quadrupled again, and once inflation cooled the Fed slowly cut rates, thinking it was over. But oil had seeped into everything, and when Iran blew up in '79, the second wave was worse than the first, and rates had to go to 20% to contain it. This time Iran is leading again. So tonight don't look at the big headline number — go straight to the core line. 2.4% or 2.5%, that 0.1 difference is the difference between Bitcoin up and down. $ETH (ETHUSDT) #SeptemberCPI #Oil #TreasuryYields

The CPI bomb goes off tonight! Oil $CL hangs by a thread at 93.5, a long-short double kill is on the verge of triggering. The calmest moment in the market is often the eve of the storm. Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. September CPI data lands with full force! Headline CPI year-over-year is expected to jump from 3.4% to 3.6%, with a month-over-month surge of 0.6%. Core CPI year-over-year is expected to rise to 2.5%, but month-over-month is only 0.2%, below the previous reading. Barclays and Morgan Stanley both forecast core CPI month-over-month at just 0.24%, down from 0.29% in August. Scenario one: CPI comes in above expectations (headline or core higher than forecast). Rate hike expectations rise, the dollar strengthens, oil comes under pressure and moves lower, potentially breaking straight through the 93.00 support and testing 92.50. Scenario two: CPI comes in below expectations (core CPI moderate). The dollar weakens, and combined with the supply crisis of Iranian crude exports being blocked to zero and 43 million barrels of crude trapped west of the Strait of Hormuz, oil could quickly rebound and test 94.50. News flow: The U.S. and Israel are reported to be discussing another strike on Iran, possibly before Israel's October 27 election. Iran's seaborne crude exports have already fallen to zero, with 43 million barrels trapped west of the Strait of Hormuz, so the supply gap is real. But Trump previously said there would be no strike before the election, so the news will keep shifting back and forth. Technical picture: CL is at 93.53, the 1-hour moving averages are turning down, MACD volume is shrinking and turning green, and RSI is weak. The whale long-short ratio is 552.95%, longs have only 610K in floating profit, while shorts have 89K in floating loss. If whales who chased longs at the highs hit stop losses, it could trigger a chain reaction of selling pressure. Short-term trade idea: Enter short near 93.80-94.00, first target 93.00-92.50. The CPI data is tonight's biggest fakeout machine. Is your stop-loss set? #USSeptemberCPIAboutToBeReleased #DrHanLinInvitedToSpeakAtOxfordUnion $BZ