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Major Averages Decline as September Rate Hike Probability Rises to 60%

The major averages finished lower for the day, though still advanced on a monthly basis in August. The pullback to start the week followed renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran, which has pushed oil sharply higher and raised concerns about another inflationary shock.Markets are now pricing roughly a 60% probability of a September rate hike, up from about 41% a week ago. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole comments, combined with renewed energy-price pressures, have pushed investors to reconsider expectations for monetary easing.Get caught up quickly on the top news and calls moving stocks with these five Top Five lists.1. STOCK NEWS:PG&E, Edison Internationaland Sempra Energywere trading lower after the California Legislatureto address the state's wildfire risk reduction and recovery frameworkAon plcUSI from KKRfor $17BOpenAI plans toproviding AI models to SpaceX'sCursorEli Lillywillfor $2.88B in cashSLBKelvion from Apollo Globalfor a total consideration of $4.1B2. WALL STREET CALLS:Deereraised to Outperform as Bairdfour agriculture names on 2027 recoveryPG&Eat Wells Fargo, Mizuho and BMO on lack of California wildfire reformBraveheart Biowaswith a Buy or equivalent rating at no less than five firmsAbercrombie & Fitchto Buy at Argus on evidence of improved salesGuggenheimTenax Therapeuticson clinical, regulatory uncertainty3. AROUND THE WEB:Apple'sPhil Schiller is stepping down from his position leading the tech giant's App Store and product events, Bloomberg reportsSoftBank-backedSB Energy issued warrants worth an estimated $5.5B to OpenAI in order to secure it as a data-center tenant for a 20-year lease ahead of its initial public offering, WSJ saysGlencorehas taken a provision of $480M on its exposure to Radiant World, which covers Glencore's entire outstanding net exposure to Radiant, Bloomberg reportsGeneral Motorsworkers in Canada approved an agreement to invest over $720M in Canadian plants, Reuters reportsMetaremoves advertisements from Facebook and Instagram after India flagged a pattern of ads using sexually explicit content to lure users into downloading malware that could steal banking information and drain accounts, Reuters says4. MOVERS:CrowdStrikewas higher afterwith Cognizant, expanding its Project QuiltWorks, and announcing the availability of its Falcon platform on Google CloudTeslagained after, "SpaceX and Tesla are each building 100GW/year of solar production capacity as fast as possible, but natural gas will still be needed to supplement and bootstrap solar for several years"XP Inc.increased in New York after Itau BBAthe stock to OutperformHerbalifewas lower after announcing Gratziani willAmazon (AMZN) fell after the FTC and 22 U.S. statesover an alleged secret ad surcharge scheme5. EARNINGS/GUIDANCE:SAICand raised its outlook for FY27GameStopreportedNextech3D.AI, with revenue higher year-over-yearPulsenmore, with CEO Dr. Elazar Sonnenchein commenting on "a transformative period"BioLineRx, with revenue lower year-over-yearINDEXES:The Dow fell 374.09, or 0.70%, to 53,185.90, the Nasdaq lost 31.53, or 0.12%, to 26,370.89, and the S&P 500 declined 25.62, or 0.33%, to 7,686.14.

Major Averages Broadly Lower as Oil Prices Rise

The major averages were broadly lower near noon as higher oil prices added to inflation risks and consolidated concerns of an incoming rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The pullback follows renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran, which has pushed oil sharply higher and raised concerns about another inflationary shock.Markets are now pricing roughly a 60% probability of a September rate hike, up from about 41% a week ago. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole comments, combined with renewed energy-price pressures, have pushed investors to reconsider expectations for monetary easing.Get caught up quickly on the top news and calls moving stocks with these five Top Five lists.1. STOCK NEWS:PG&E, Edison Internationaland Sempra Energywere trading lower after the California Legislature amended Senate Bill 492 to address the state's wildfire risk reduction and recovery frameworkAon plcUSI from KKRfor $17BOpenAI plans toproviding AI models to SpaceX'sCursorEli Lillywillfor $2.88B in cashSLBKelvion from Apollo Globalfor a total consideration of $4.1B2. WALL STREET CALLS:Deereto Outperform as Baird upgraded four agriculture names on 2027 recoveryPG&Eat Wells Fargo, Mizuho and BMO on lack of California wildfire reformBraveheart Biowaswith a Buy or equivalent rating at no less than five firmsAbercrombie & Fitchto Buy at Argus on evidence of improved salesGuggenheimTenax Therapeuticson clinical, regulatory uncertainty3. AROUND THE WEB:SoftBank-backedSB Energy issued warrants worth an estimated $5.5B to OpenAI in order to secure it as a data-center tenant for a 20-year lease ahead of its initial public offering, WSJ saysGlencorehas taken a provision of $480M on its exposure to Radiant World, which covers Glencore's entire outstanding net exposure to Radiant, Bloomberg reportsGeneral Motorsworkers in Canada approved an agreement to invest over $720M in Canadian plants, Reuters reportsMetaremoves advertisements from Facebook and Instagram after India flagged a pattern of ads using sexually explicit content to lure users into downloading malware that could steal banking information and drain accounts, Reuters saysChangXin Memory Technologies, or CXMT, is suing the Pentagon to overturn its designation as a Chinese military company, WSJ reports4. MOVERS:CrowdStrikehigher after announcing awith Cognizant (CTSH, expanding its Project QuiltWorks, and announcing the availability of its Falcon platform on Google CloudTeslagains after, "SpaceX and Teslaare each building 100GW/year of solar production capacity as fast as possible, but natural gas will still be needed to supplement and bootstrap solar for several years"XP Inc.increases in New York after Itau BBAthe stock to OutperformHerbalifelower after announcingfrom role as CEOPinterestfalls after announcing theJulia Brau Donnelly5. EARNINGS/GUIDANCE:SAICand raised its outlook for FY27GameStopNextech3D.AI, with revenue higher year-over-yearPulsenmore, with CEO Dr. Elazar Sonnenchein commenting on "a transformative period"BioLineRx, with revenue lower year-over-yearINDEXES:Near midday, the Dow was down 305.95, or 0.57%, to 53,254.04, the Nasdaq was down 89.50, or 0.34%, to 26,312.92, and the S&P 500 was down 33.45, or 0.43%, to 7,678.31.

Investors Pull Back Amid Geopolitical and Inflation Concerns

Stock futures are slightly lower as investors close out August with renewed geopolitical and inflation concerns. The pullback follows renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran, which has pushed oil sharply higher and raised concerns about another inflationary shock.Brent crude has climbed above $90 a barrel, while WTI is around $86, after U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz and Iran retaliated against U.S. forces in the region.Markets are now pricing roughly a 60% probability of a September rate hike, up from about 41% a week ago. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole comments, combined with renewed energy-price pressures, have pushed investors to reconsider expectations for monetary easing.The market is nevertheless finishing a strong August. The S&P 500 is up roughly 3% for the month, the Nasdaq about 4% and the Dow about 2%, according to premarket data. The gains have been driven largely by technology and AI stocks. Attention now turns to a data-heavy first week of September. The ISM manufacturing report is due Tuesday, followed by the August employment report Friday. The jobs report will be particularly important for the Fed after July's disappointing payroll reading, with economists expecting employment to rebound in August.In pre-market trading, S&P 500 futures fell 0.36%, Nasdaq futures fell 0.32% and Dow futures fell 0.37%.Check out this morning's top movers from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly.HIGHER -SLBup 1% after signing an agreement to acquire Kelvion for $3.4B in cashUP AFTER EARNINGS -SAICup 11%BioLineRxup 9%GameStopup 3%UP AFTER RENEWED STRIKES IN THE MIDDLE EAST -Halliburtonup 2%Chevronup 2%Valeroup 2%Occidentalup 2%Exxon Mobilup 2%LOWER -PG&E, Edison Internationaland Sempra Energydown 16%, 15% and 3%, respectively, afterCalifornia lawmakers are barring Governor Gavin Newsom from moving forward with his plan to prevent insurers in the state from recouping their losses from investor-owned utilities that cause a catastrophic wildfireTela Bio (TELA) down 5% after announcing that Roberto Cuca, COO and CFO, will step down from the role effective immediatelyPinterestdown 3% after disclosing that Julia Brau Donnelly, CFO, submitted her resignation to Pinterest to pursue another opportunityAon plcdown 1% after entering a definitive agreement to acquire USI from KKRand other shareholders for a total purchase price of $17B