ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO) Stock Analysis

$20.360

-0.305 (-1.50%)At close

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High
20.660
Open
20.660
VWAP
20.42
Volume
2.35M
Mkt Cap
16.84B
Low
20.235
Amount
47.98M
EV/EBITDA, TTM
1.59

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc is a holding company that provides express delivery services and other value-added logistics services through a nationwide network. The express delivery services mainly include parcel sorting and route transportation. The Company provides express delivery services directly to corporate customers, including vertical e-commerce and traditional merchants, as well as delivering products to end consumers. The Company also provides freight forwarding services.

AI analysis of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO)

Hold

ZTO Express is currently priced at $20.15, which is below the recent analyst price target of $22, indicating potential upside. However, the RSI is at 69.89, suggesting it is nearing overbought territory. The company has shown a strong year-over-year revenue growth of 22% and a solid gross margin of 25.66% in the latest quarter, but it faces risks such as a downgrade in parcel volume guidance to 6%-10% year-over-year and a sector-wide shift to quality over quantity. Given these factors, it may be prudent to hold rather than buy at this time.

Analyst Ratings (15)

Buy
13 Buy
0 Hold
2 Sell
Current: 20.36
Low
—
Average
—
High
—

JPMorgan

2026-09-02

Price Target

$22

Neutral

Macquarie

2026-07-08

Price Target

—

Outperform

BofA

2026-05-27

Price Target

$27

Neutral

Morgan Stanley

2026-05-20

Price Target

—

Overweight

Daiwa

2026-03-18

Price Target

—

Outperform

Valuation Metrics

The current forward P/E ratio for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO) is 9.38, compared to its 5-year average forward P/E of 14.95.

Forward P/E

Undervalued
5Y Average P/E
14.95
Current P/E
9.38
Overvalued
18.99
Undervalued
10.90

Forward EV/EBITDA

Undervalued
5Y Average EV/EBITDA
7.94
Current EV/EBITDA
1.59
Overvalued
11.41
Undervalued
4.48

Forward P/S

Undervalued
5Y Average P/S
2.65
Current P/S
0.25
Overvalued
3.87
Undervalued
1.44

Alphio AI Price Scenarios for ZTO

Scenario prices are the last monthly forecast band of the current year. Probabilities are fixed model weights (25 / 50 / 25), not guarantees.

B

Bull

Bull · 25%ZTO

$21.48

Scenario price

B

Base

Base · 50%ZTO

$20.89

Scenario price

B

Bear

Bear · 25%ZTO

$17.84

Scenario price

Whales holding ZTO

E

Essence Fund Management Co., Ltd

+ HoldingZTOONC

+0.41%

3M Return

S

Shanghai Orient Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd.

+ HoldingZTOBABA

-9.76%

3M Return

R

Ruiyuan Fund Management Company, LTD

+ HoldingZTOBABA

-12.58%

3M Return

A

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

+ HoldingZTO

-14.05%

3M Return

Events Timeline

2026-09-21 (ET)

10:30:00

ZTO Express Shares Down 7.5% to $19.39

2026-05-19 (ET)

18:10:00

ZTO Reports Q1 Revenue of $1.93B, Up 22% YoY

18:10:00

ZTO Reports Q1 Revenue Exceeds Expectations at RMB 13.282 Billion

2026-02-04 (ET)

08:30:00

ZTO Express Proposes Offering of $1.5B in Convertible Notes

05:20:00

Company Sees FY25 Gross Profit of RMB 12.15B to RMB 12.55B

News

ZTO FAQ — answered by Alphio AI

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc is a holding company that provides express delivery services and other value-added logistics services through a nationwide network. The express delivery services mainly include parcel sorting and route transportation. The Company provides express delivery services directly to corporate customers, including vertical e-commerce and traditional merchants, as well as delivering products to end consumers. The Company also provides freight forwarding services. It operates in the Industrials sector.

ZTO Express is currently priced at $20.15, which is below the recent analyst price target of $22, indicating potential upside. However, the RSI is at 69.89, suggesting it is nearing overbought territory. The company has shown a strong year-over-year revenue growth of 22% and a solid gross margin of 25.66% in the latest quarter, but it faces risks such as a downgrade in parcel volume guidance to 6%-10% year-over-year and a sector-wide shift to quality over quantity. Given these factors, it may be prudent to hold rather than buy at this time.

15 analysts cover ZTO: 13 rate it Buy, 0 Hold and 2 Sell.

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This page is for research only and is not investment advice. Models can be wrong. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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