Geo Group Inc

Geo Group Inc (GEO) Stock Analysis

$28.660

-0.653 (-2.28%)At close

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High
29.560
Open
29.350
VWAP
28.80
Volume
3.39M
Mkt Cap
1.84B
Low
28.170
Amount
97.76M
EV/EBITDA, TTM
9.06

The GEO Group, Inc. is a diversified government service provider. The Company specializes in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. The Company’s U.S. Secure Services segment primarily encompasses the United Sates-based secure services business. Its Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment represents technology and services provided to adults for monitoring services for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants. Its Reentry Services segment represents evidence-based supervision and treatment programs provided to adults for residential and non-residential treatment, educational and community-based programs, pre-release and half-way house programs. Its International Services segment primarily consists of secure services operations in South Africa and Australia.

AI analysis of Geo Group Inc (GEO)

Hold

Geo Group Inc is currently not a strong buy due to its recent price decline and low RSI, despite positive earnings performance. The current price is $28.66, with an RSI of 28.53 indicating oversold conditions. Although the company has shown a year-to-date change of +79.91% and a significant net income increase of 63.5% year-over-year, the stock has dropped 7.93% over the last five days, suggesting short-term weakness. The main risk is the lowered full-year revenue guidance to $3 billion, down from $3.03 billion, which could impact investor sentiment.

Analyst Ratings (4)

+13.40% upside
Buy
2 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 28.66
Low
30.00
Average
32.50
High
35.00

Noble Capital

2026-08-10

Price Target

$40

Outperform

Northland

2026-06-26

Price Target

$40

Outperform

JonesResearch

2026-02-13

Price Target

$33

Buy

JonesResearch

2025-11-07

Price Target

$37

Buy

JonesResearch

2025-08-07

Price Target

$45

Buy

Valuation Metrics

The current forward P/E ratio for Geo Group Inc (GEO) is 18.98, compared to its 5-year average forward P/E of 15.07.

Forward P/E

Fair
5Y Average P/E
15.07
Current P/E
18.98
Overvalued
22.31
Undervalued
7.83

Forward EV/EBITDA

Overvalued
5Y Average EV/EBITDA
7.40
Current EV/EBITDA
9.06
Overvalued
8.95
Undervalued
5.85

Forward P/S

Overvalued
5Y Average P/S
0.74
Current P/S
1.16
Overvalued
1.11
Undervalued
0.36

Alphio AI Price Scenarios for GEO

Scenario prices are the last monthly forecast band of the current year. Probabilities are fixed model weights (25 / 50 / 25), not guarantees.

B

Bull

Bull · 25%GEO

$39.46

Scenario price

B

Base

Base · 50%GEO

$30.52

Scenario price

B

Bear

Bear · 25%GEO

$29.51

Scenario price

Whales holding GEO

L

Lee, Danner & Bass, Inc.

+ HoldingGEO

+4.46%

3M Return

C

Caption Management, LLC

+ HoldingGEO

+0.42%

3M Return

R

Rubric Capital Management LP

+ HoldingGEO

+0.02%

3M Return

P

Pentwater Capital Management LP

+ HoldingGEO

-9.27%

3M Return

G

GoldenTree Asset Management LP

+ HoldingGEO

-10.51%

3M Return

Events Timeline

2026-10-05 (ET)

11:30:00

Jones Analyst Positive on Geo Group's $950M Adelanto West Sale

07:00:00

GEO Group Sells California ICE Centers for $950M

2026-08-06 (ET)

08:00:00

Company Reports Q2 Revenue of $732.1M, Exceeds Expectations

08:00:00

2026 Revenue Outlook Narrowed to $2.95B-$3.05B

News

GEO FAQ — answered by Alphio AI

The GEO Group, Inc. is a diversified government service provider. The Company specializes in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. The Company’s U.S. Secure Services segment primarily encompasses the United Sates-based secure services business. Its Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment represents technology and services provided to adults for monitoring services for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants. Its Reentry Services segment represents evidence-based supervision and treatment programs provided to adults for residential and non-residential treatment, educational and community-based programs, pre-release and half-way house programs. Its International Services segment primarily consists of secure services operations in South Africa and Australia. It operates in the Industrials sector (GENERAL BLDG CONTRACTORS - RESIDENTIAL BLDGS industry).

Geo Group Inc is currently not a strong buy due to its recent price decline and low RSI, despite positive earnings performance. The current price is $28.66, with an RSI of 28.53 indicating oversold conditions. Although the company has shown a year-to-date change of +79.91% and a significant net income increase of 63.5% year-over-year, the stock has dropped 7.93% over the last five days, suggesting short-term weakness. The main risk is the lowered full-year revenue guidance to $3 billion, down from $3.03 billion, which could impact investor sentiment.

4 analysts cover GEO: 2 rate it Buy, 2 Hold and 0 Sell. The average price target is 32.50.

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This page is for research only and is not investment advice. Models can be wrong. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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