Geo Group Inc

Geo Group Inc (GEO) Stock Analysis

$30.530

-1.227 (-4.02%)At close

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High
31.560
Open
31.470
VWAP
30.71
Vol
3.20M
Mkt Cap
1.84B
Low
30.040
Amount
98.28M
EV/EBITDA, TTM
8.94

The GEO Group, Inc. is a diversified government service provider. The Company specializes in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. The Company’s U.S. Secure Services segment primarily encompasses the United Sates-based secure services business. Its Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment represents technology and services provided to adults for monitoring services for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants. Its Reentry Services segment represents evidence-based supervision and treatment programs provided to adults for residential and non-residential treatment, educational and community-based programs, pre-release and half-way house programs. Its International Services segment primarily consists of secure services operations in South Africa and Australia.

AI analysis of Geo Group Inc (GEO)

buy

Geo Group Inc is a good buy right now due to its strong recent earnings performance, with an EPS of $0.37 reported for Q2, which is a 68.18% increase from the previous year and above the consensus estimate of $0.32. Additionally, the company raised its 2026 attributable income guidance to a range of $168 million to $175 million, exceeding expectations. The current price of $32.28 is well below the analyst price targets of $40, indicating significant upside potential. However, the main risk is the lowered full-year revenue guidance to $3 billion from $3.03 billion, which represents a decrease of 0.8%.

Analyst Ratings (4)

+6.45% upside
Buy
2 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 30.53
Low
30.00
Average
32.50
High
35.00

Noble Capital

2026-08-10

Price Target

$40

Outperform

Northland

2026-06-26

Price Target

$40

Outperform

JonesResearch

2026-02-13

Price Target

$33

Buy

JonesResearch

2025-11-07

Price Target

$37

Buy

JonesResearch

2025-08-07

Price Target

$45

Buy

Valuation Metrics

The current forward P/E ratio for Geo Group Inc (GEO) is 26.81, compared to its 5-year average forward P/E of 14.83.

Forward P/E

Overvalued
5Y Average P/E
14.83
Current P/E
26.81
Overvalued
22.13
Undervalued
7.53

Forward EV/EBITDA

Overvalued
5Y Average EV/EBITDA
7.38
Current EV/EBITDA
8.94
Overvalued
8.91
Undervalued
5.85

Forward P/S

Overvalued
5Y Average P/S
0.72
Current P/S
1.23
Overvalued
1.08
Undervalued
0.35

Alphio AI Price Scenarios for GEO

Scenario prices are the last monthly forecast band of the current year. Probabilities are fixed model weights (25 / 50 / 25), not guarantees.

B

Bull

Bull · 25%GEO

$39.46

Scenario price

B

Base

Base · 50%GEO

$30.52

Scenario price

B

Bear

Bear · 25%GEO

$29.51

Scenario price

Whales holding GEO

L

Lee, Danner & Bass, Inc.

+ HoldingGEO

+2.64%

3M Return

C

Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC

+ HoldingGEO

-6.65%

3M Return

R

Rubric Capital Management LP

+ HoldingGEO

-6.93%

3M Return

P

Pentwater Capital Management LP

+ HoldingGEO

-8.90%

3M Return

GEO FAQ — answered by Alphio AI

The GEO Group, Inc. is a diversified government service provider. The Company specializes in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. The Company’s U.S. Secure Services segment primarily encompasses the United Sates-based secure services business. Its Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment represents technology and services provided to adults for monitoring services for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants. Its Reentry Services segment represents evidence-based supervision and treatment programs provided to adults for residential and non-residential treatment, educational and community-based programs, pre-release and half-way house programs. Its International Services segment primarily consists of secure services operations in South Africa and Australia. It operates in the Industrials sector (GENERAL BLDG CONTRACTORS - RESIDENTIAL BLDGS industry).

Geo Group Inc is a good buy right now due to its strong recent earnings performance, with an EPS of $0.37 reported for Q2, which is a 68.18% increase from the previous year and above the consensus estimate of $0.32. Additionally, the company raised its 2026 attributable income guidance to a range of $168 million to $175 million, exceeding expectations. The current price of $32.28 is well below the analyst price targets of $40, indicating significant upside potential. However, the main risk is the lowered full-year revenue guidance to $3 billion from $3.03 billion, which represents a decrease of 0.8%.

4 analysts cover GEO: 2 rate it Buy, 2 Hold and 0 Sell. The average price target is 32.50.

This page is for research only and is not investment advice. Models can be wrong. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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