KANZHUN LIMITED (BZ) Stock AnalysisBZKANZHUN LIMITED

Recently, a large number of U.S. air forces have been gathering in the Middle East. Carrier strike groups, stealth fighters, bombers, tankers, and transport aircraft are steadily moving toward Qatar, the UAE, Jordan, and other locations, and the atmosphere around the Strait of Hormuz is already stretched to the limit. This kind of deployment is not just a show of force: carriers can provide carrier-based aircraft coverage, bombers and stealth fighters can carry out suppression and long-range strikes, tankers extend time on station, and transport aircraft support ammunition, spare parts, and logistics. But the online talk of a sudden dollar collapse is clearly exaggerated. However problematic the dollar system may be, it will not go to zero immediately because of one tweet or one military exercise. What really matters is not sentiment, but who controls the maritime routes. The narrowest point of the Strait of Hormuz is only about 33 kilometers, and the actual navigable international channel is even narrower, with Iran on the north shore and Oman on the south shore. About 17 million to 20 million barrels of crude oil and refined products pass through here every day, accounting for about one-fifth of global oil consumption and about one-third of global seaborne oil. A large share of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas also has to pass through this waterway. Based on global oil consumption of about 100 million barrels per day, when Hormuz sneezes, the international oil market catches a fever. As long as there are ship seizures, mines, drone attacks, or a sharp rise in war insurance rates, oil tankers will not be able to move smoothly. For example, a very large crude carrier can carry about 2 million barrels of crude oil. If war risk insurance rises from 0.1% of hull value to 1%, the cost of a single voyage could increase by hundreds of thousands of dollars, ultimately feeding into freight rates, oil prices, and inflation. Historically, this vulnerability has played out repeatedly: in the 1980s Tanker War during the Iran-Iraq conflict, hundreds of merchant ships were attacked, shipping costs soared, and the U.S. Navy had to intervene to escort vessels; in June 2019, tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman, and Brent crude rose about 4.5% in a single day; in September 2019, Saudi Aramco facilities were attacked, Saudi output was briefly halved, and Brent rose more than 14% in one day. During the 2024 Red Sea crisis, merchant ships were forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding more than ten days to Asia-Europe voyages, while freight rates and insurance costs multiplied. If one Red Sea can cause this much disruption, a real problem in Hormuz would have an even greater impact. That is because Hormuz is not like the Red Sea: nearby alternative pipelines are limited, and the combined bypass capacity of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline and the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline is far from enough to cover a shortfall of nearly 20 million barrels per day. So the foundation of the petrodollar is not just that everyone is used to using the dollar. It is also supported by the security of key maritime routes, U.S. military presence, security arrangements with oil-producing countries, the dollar clearing network, and the inertia of global trade. U.S. military buildup and tension in Hormuz will push up risk premiums and disrupt oil prices, freight rates, and insurance, but they will not automatically end the dollar. What really matters is whether passage through Hormuz is blocked, whether escort and deterrence efforts are effective, whether insurance rates spiral out of control, and whether there is a miscalculation among Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United States. These are what determine how much pressure the petrodollar comes under, not emotional collapse narratives.

Retail investor: Oil is back above $100, and they're attacking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz again. I'm thinking of going to cash first and waiting until things calm down. Me: When will it calm down? Retail investor: I don't know... when the war ends? Me: Brent crude rose to about $118 in March when the Strait closed. Everyone was saying exactly what you're saying now... Retail investor: Then what happened? Me: The Nasdaq hit an all-time high a few weeks later, and is now up more than 30% from that point. Retail investor: With all of this still going on?? Me: Exactly. The market doesn't wait for everything to be clear. Once it judges that earnings will be fine, it moves up right away. Retail investor: So you just ignore all of this. Me: Not ignore, I just don't sell because of it. If oil spikes and drags the whole market down, that's exactly when 1-2 year portfolio-secured puts become very attractive, and I'll sell more... as long as my ratio still has room. I won't make a 2-year decision based on a headline that could change by Friday... Don't let every headline scare you out of a very attractive setup.

CPI came out overnight, and something strange happened. US Treasury yields spiked to 5.33% last night, then dropped straight back to 5.11% this morning. Money got cheaper, and BTC should have caught a breather. Instead, BTC didn't rise. It's still falling, now at 81k. The key is how Treasury yields came down. If inflation cools and people think rates won't rise further, Treasury yields fall. That's good news, money dares to come out and play, and BTC rises with it. Today isn't that. Today stocks crashed, and people got scared and rushed money into Treasuries. Once money crowds in, yields get pushed down. Last night the Nasdaq fell 1.9%, its worst day since July. Today Asia kept crashing, with South Korea's market falling as much as 8% intraday, and Samsung and SK Hynix both down more than 10%. The AI sector got hammered badly. AI companies building data centers mostly borrow money. When rates rise, borrowing gets more expensive, and they're the first to struggle. This time BTC wasn't treated as a safe haven. It was sold off along with tech stocks. Those mining companies that shifted to AI computing power fell as much as 13% last night. So today's drop in Treasury yields isn't good news for BTC. It shows the market is afraid. Oil hasn't eased either. Brent is still around 105 dollars, and things have flared up again near Hormuz. Today the International Energy Agency is meeting in Paris to discuss whether to release another 100 million barrels of emergency reserves. If they do, oil prices could ease a bit, and that's the only good news to hope for right now. I said before that Treasury yields falling back below 5.2% is a signal for BTC to move up. Today the number hit that, but this time I don't accept it. The reason for the drop is wrong. For a real rise, oil has to come down first, then inflation follows, then Treasury yields fall. One link after another. Until then, BTC is still following tech stocks. First watch 80k. #SeptemberCPIIncomingHowWillOilAndTreasuryYieldsMove $BTC

The September CPI number is out, and everyone has seen it. But the real problem isn't the number itself — it's oil, and that situation can't be solved anytime soon. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked. Shipping capacity is far below pre-war levels, and the major banks say it won't improve in the short term. OPEC isn't planning to increase production either. Several institutions expect a return to oversupply only next year. As long as oil stays high, inflation stays stuck. There's something many people haven't figured out here. Fed rate hikes can address people buying too much, but they can't fix a blocked strait. Oil is expensive not because demand is strong, but because supply is cut off. So rate hikes can't bring oil down, but the crypto market can't escape the hit from rate hikes. After the data came out, the probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 20% to 50%. US Treasuries hit 5.3%, a level not seen since 2002. People originally thought December, now it could come this month. These past two days, finance accounts are all talking about rate hikes. Few mention the strait — that's the root of it. So don't wait for one big green candle to fill the gap back in. This kind of market grinds down slowly. A sharp drop is easier to handle — the scary part is losing a little each day. For BTC, I'm still watching the 80K level. If it dips there, I'll buy. If it can't hold, I'll accept it and look at the next step down. #SeptemberCPI #Oil #Treasuries

September CPI comes out tonight at 8:30. Everyone in crypto is waiting for this number. Oil is stuck around $100, so headline CPI rising is a given, and the market expects around 3.7%. The real focus is core CPI. If that can't be contained, a December rate hike is unavoidable. The 10-year Treasury is at 5.2%, so money can just sit there and earn that yield. Nobody wants to take risks in crypto. BTC is at 84k now and has been grinding here for the past two days. My read is that after the data drops, it dips first, and the 82k area is the first level to watch. If it wicks down and gets pulled back, it's fine. If it can't hold, this round has to look for support lower. Honestly, I really dislike these data-waiting days. The whole day the chart is dead, and there's nowhere to act even if I want to. Before 8:30 tonight, keep position size lighter. The dip is the spot to get in, don't run out with everyone else. #SeptemberCPI #Oil #TreasuryYields $BTC