Algoma Steel Group Inc

Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) Stock Analysis

$4.030

-0.069 (-1.71%)At close

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High
4.180
Open
4.100
VWAP
4.08
Volume
1.02M
Mkt Cap
720.39M
Low
4.020
Amount
4.15M
EV/EBITDA, TTM
-2.56

Algoma Steel Group Inc. is a Canada-based integrated producer of hot and cold rolled steel products including sheet and plate. The Company delivers responsive, customer-driven product solutions for applications in the automotive, construction, energy, defense, and manufacturing sectors. It is a key supplier of steel products to customers in North America and is the producer of discrete plate products in Canada. The Company offers a wide range of steel plate products, which include AR225, Heat Treated Plate, AlgoLaser, AlgoGrip, and The Heavies. Its sheet products include Hot Rolled Sheet - DSPC, AR200, and Cold Rolled Sheet. The Company has a raw steel production capacity of an estimated over 2.8 million liquid tons per year. Its Direct Strip Production Complex is a continuous casting and rolling mill, producing high-quality hot-rolled sheet steel directly from liquid steel. The Company also generates by-products from its operations.

AI analysis of Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL)

Hold

Algoma Steel Group Inc is currently not a strong buy due to ongoing financial struggles, despite a recent price increase. The current price is $4.30, with a forward P/E ratio of 9.12 indicating potential value, but the company has reported significant net losses, including a net income loss of $96 million in Q2 2026. The RSI is at 52.35, suggesting the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, which indicates a stable short-term trend. The main risk is the company's declining revenue, which fell 54.6% year-over-year in Q2 2026, raising concerns about its profitability and future growth prospects.

Valuation Metrics

The current forward P/E ratio for Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) is 9.12, compared to its 5-year average forward P/E of -3.49.

Forward P/E

Fair
5Y Average P/E
-3.49
Current P/E
9.12
Overvalued
17.82
Undervalued
-24.80

Forward EV/EBITDA

Fair
5Y Average EV/EBITDA
4.10
Current EV/EBITDA
-2.56
Overvalued
19.14
Undervalued
-10.93

Forward P/S

Undervalued
5Y Average P/S
0.40
Current P/S
0.25
Overvalued
0.51
Undervalued
0.28

Alphio AI Price Scenarios for ASTL

Scenario prices are the last monthly forecast band of the current year. Probabilities are fixed model weights (25 / 50 / 25), not guarantees.

B

Bull

Bull · 25%ASTL

$6.10

Scenario price

B

Base

Base · 50%ASTL

$4.31

Scenario price

B

Bear

Bear · 25%ASTL

$3.07

Scenario price

Whales holding ASTL

S

Sourcerock Group LLC

+ HoldingASTL

+4.00%

3M Return

D

Donald Smith & Co., Inc.

+ HoldingASTL

-3.26%

3M Return

Events Timeline

2026-10-02 (ET)

17:00:00

Major U.S. Averages Rise on Jobs Data

12:30:00

Major Averages Rise as Jobs Data Shows Weak Growth; Nasdaq Up 1.09%

2026-10-01 (ET)

18:00:00

Algoma Steel Expects Q3 Steel Shipments of Approximately 145,000 Tons

2026-09-02 (ET)

08:00:00

Algoma Steel Updates on Lake Superior Power Outage

2026-07-29 (ET)

18:00:00

Algoma Reports Q2 Revenue of C$267.5M, Below Consensus

News

ASTL FAQ — answered by Alphio AI

Algoma Steel Group Inc. is a Canada-based integrated producer of hot and cold rolled steel products including sheet and plate. The Company delivers responsive, customer-driven product solutions for applications in the automotive, construction, energy, defense, and manufacturing sectors. It is a key supplier of steel products to customers in North America and is the producer of discrete plate products in Canada. The Company offers a wide range of steel plate products, which include AR225, Heat Treated Plate, AlgoLaser, AlgoGrip, and The Heavies. Its sheet products include Hot Rolled Sheet - DSPC, AR200, and Cold Rolled Sheet. The Company has a raw steel production capacity of an estimated over 2.8 million liquid tons per year. Its Direct Strip Production Complex is a continuous casting and rolling mill, producing high-quality hot-rolled sheet steel directly from liquid steel. The Company also generates by-products from its operations. It operates in the Basic Materials sector (STEEL WORKS, BLAST FURNACES (INCLUDING COKE OVENS) industry).

Algoma Steel Group Inc is currently not a strong buy due to ongoing financial struggles, despite a recent price increase. The current price is $4.30, with a forward P/E ratio of 9.12 indicating potential value, but the company has reported significant net losses, including a net income loss of $96 million in Q2 2026. The RSI is at 52.35, suggesting the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, which indicates a stable short-term trend. The main risk is the company's declining revenue, which fell 54.6% year-over-year in Q2 2026, raising concerns about its profitability and future growth prospects.

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This page is for research only and is not investment advice. Models can be wrong. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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