Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
核心摘要
根據「Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，December 31 以壓倒性的 38.5% 獲勝機率主導市場。該市場的下注量已達 $62K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- December 31 (38.5%)：December 31 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 39¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $369.7K 的成交量。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 38.5% | $369.7K | 39¢ | 62¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.
Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差
人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。
將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。
頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會
根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：
- 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 December 31 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 38.5% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 46.2%——形成可觀的 +7.7% EV 差。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31Best EV | 38.5% | 46.2% | +7.7% |
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Jun 30, 2026
- 08:12 PM0X0x122Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed-1782168978900$67.62
Bought 233.18 Yes for Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? at 0.29
- 08:12 PM0X0x122Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed-1782168978900$16.91
Sold 23.82 No for Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? at 0.71
- 08:11 PM0X0x122Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed-1782168978900$3.62
Sold 12.94 Yes for Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? at 0.28
- 08:10 PMBDBdrivedfya$88.75
Sold 125 No for Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? at 0.71
- 08:09 PMPOPolyEGG$12.08
Bought 41.67 Yes for Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? at 0.29
- 08:09 PMVOVolynMolfar$27.58
Bought 95.1 Yes for Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? at 0.29
- 08:09 PM0X0x122Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed-1782168978900$44.55
Bought 165 Yes for Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? at 0.27
- 08:09 PM——$2.98
Sold 11.02 Yes for Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? at 0.27
- 08:09 PMOXox7eD3aed17a79c2A3375Da27a9470b310585027AA$1.70
Bought 5.483869 Yes for Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? at 0.31
- 08:09 PM——$2.10
Bought 6 Yes for Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? at 0.35
- 08:09 PMTRtrailerboy1$53.38
Sold 197.69 Yes for Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? at 0.27
- 08:09 PMPOPo1yBot-6NEazyE4Ef$6.09
Bought 16.93 Yes for Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? at 0.36
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，December 31 以 38.5% 的獲勝機率領跑。該市場總成交量已達 $62K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？
即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。
目前哪個結果的期望值（EV）最高？
最新一輪測算顯示，December 31 是最顯著的錯誤定價。市場對其隱含機率僅給到 38.5%，而我們的 AI 測算其公允價值為 46.2%——形成 +7.7% 的期望值差，是該市場中最具價值的標的。