Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
核心摘要
根據「Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? 以壓倒性的 11.5% 獲勝機率主導市場。該市場的下注量已達 $592.5K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? (11.5%)：Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 11¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $592.5K 的成交量。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | 11.5% | $592.5K | 11¢ | 89¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差
人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。
將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。
頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會
根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：
- 最被高估的結果：Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? 當前交易價為 11.5%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 9.2%，形成 -2.2% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | 11.5% | 9.2% | -2.2% |
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Sep 28, 2026
- 07:26 PM0X0x91784d82fbe4543459ee85fc9809be185d70a2b$120.00
Bought 1000 Yes for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.12
- 07:26 PM0X0x91784d82fbe4543459ee85fc9809be185d70a2b$83.66
Bought 760.53 Yes for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.11
- 07:25 PMNEneutralwave23$4.72
Sold 5.3 No for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.89
- 07:24 PMOOoopslostmoney$11.31
Bought 102.803739 Yes for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.11
- 07:24 PMNEneutralwave23$4.72
Bought 5.302009 No for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.89
- 07:12 PMNONoSteinNoGate$26.74
Bought 243.09 Yes for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.11
- 07:12 PMNONoSteinNoGate$22.71
Bought 227.1 Yes for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.1
- 05:48 PM——$8.60
Bought 86 Yes for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.1
- 05:48 PMLOlongdated-poli$3.00
Sold 30 Yes for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.1
- 05:48 PM——$10.40
Bought 104 Yes for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.1
- 05:48 PM0X0x888888888$365.58
Bought 406.199312 No for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.9
- 05:48 PM0X0x8Df92602EC9c454E8099D9dc4A3F0d21DaA0468C-1766855317883$132.79
Sold 1327.9 Yes for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.1
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? 以 11.5% 的獲勝機率領跑。該市場總成交量已達 $592.5K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？
即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。
市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度？
是的——資料顯示市場對 Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 11.5%，但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 9.2%，形成 -2.2% 的負 EV 差，表明該合約被高估。