Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

根據「Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，December 31, 2028 以壓倒性的 7,850% 獲勝機率主導市場；December 31, 2027 以 4,250% 位居第二，December 31, 2026 以 650% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $74.7K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• December 31, 2028 (7,850%)：December 31, 2028 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 7,850¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $12.8K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• December 31, 2027 (4,250%)：作為最可行的替代選項，December 31, 2027 保持著 4,250% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,250¢。
• December 31, 2026 (650%)：以 650% 的機率位列第三，市場對 December 31, 2026 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI.

A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered.

A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.