Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
核心摘要
根據「Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，No 以壓倒性的 8,650% 獲勝機率主導市場；Yes 以 1,350% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $99.5K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- No (8,650%)：No 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 8,650¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- Yes (1,350%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Yes 保持著 1,350% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 1,350¢。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No | 8650.0% | — | 8650¢ | -8550¢ |
| 2 | Yes | 1350.0% | — | 1350¢ | -1250¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Sep 7, 2026
- 02:05 PMB4b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.$5.20
Bought 40 Yes for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.13
Sep 6, 2026
- 11:39 AM757542242$7.65
Bought 8.693175 No for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.88
- 11:39 AMPRprov123$19.96
Bought 22.681816 No for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.88
Sep 4, 2026
- 08:36 AMKOKongKessler$1.43
Sold 1.64 No for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.87
Aug 27, 2026
- 12:39 PM——$7.66
Sold 8.8 No for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.87
- 02:11 AMKOKongKessler$1.51
Bought 1.64 No for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.92
Aug 26, 2026
- 06:56 PMPOPoltergeist94$16.29
Bought 18.303363 No for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.89
- 06:56 PMPAPaoul1992$12.28
Bought 13.797745 No for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.89
- 06:56 PMM.M.elena678$14.56
Bought 16.546509 No for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.88
- 06:56 PMERernestosparalesto$4.75
Bought 5.397725 No for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.88
- 05:02 PM——$7.75
Bought 8.806816 No for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.88
- 02:04 PMB4b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.$1.00
Bought 10 Yes for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.1
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常見問題
目前市場對「Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，No 以 8,650% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Yes（1,350%）。該市場總成交量已達 $99.5K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。