Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

根據「Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Saudi Arabia 以壓倒性的 1,650% 獲勝機率主導市場；China 以 1,000% 位居第二，Russia 以 850% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $86K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Saudi Arabia (1,650%)：Saudi Arabia 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 1,650¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $13.8K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• China (1,000%)：作為最可行的替代選項，China 保持著 1,000% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 1,000¢。
• Russia (850%)：以 850% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Russia 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Iran (565%)、Anthropic (445%)，以及 Meta (380%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Israel 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

On October 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Abdulrahman Alfozan, an OpenAI employee and Saudi national, had been arrested and charged after allegedly installing a covert audio recording device in an executive conference room at OpenAI's San Francisco offices (see: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/saudi-national-arrested-installing-surreptitious-audio-recording-device-openai).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI publicly alleges that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of the listed entity in connection with this incident between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For listed countries, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the government of the listed country, its intelligence or security services, or a state-affiliated entity of the listed country. Alfozan's nationality alone will not qualify.

For listed companies or individuals, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the listed company, its subsidiaries, or the listed individual.

A qualifying allegation must definitively state that Alfozan acted on behalf of, or under the direction, control, or sponsorship of, the listed entity. Statements that merely speculate about or suggest possible ties, or that describe only contact, cooperation, or association with the listed entity, will not qualify.

Qualifying allegations include charging documents, court filings, and on-the-record statements by the U.S. Department of Justice, the FBI, or other U.S. federal agencies or their authorized representatives acting in an official capacity, as well as official statements by OpenAI.

Once a qualifying allegation has been made, no subsequent retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and OpenAI.