Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

根據「Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，None before 2027 以壓倒性的 48.1% 獲勝機率主導市場；Scott Bessent 以 9.4% 位居第二，Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 以 9.3% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $43.4K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• None before 2027 (48.1%)：None before 2027 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 48¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $8.1K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Scott Bessent (9.4%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Scott Bessent 保持著 9.4% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 9¢。
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (9.3%)：以 9.3% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 33.3%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Susie Wiles (6.4%)、Doug Burgum (5.7%)，以及 Howard Lutnick (5.3%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Russell T. Vought 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.

If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：None before 2027 當前交易價為 48.1%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 32.1%，形成 -16% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 9.3% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 10.6%——形成可觀的 +1.4% EV 差。
• 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 Doug Collins（EV 差：+1.3%）以及 Scott Bessent（EV 差：+1.2%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。