Who will be arrested before 2027?

根據「Who will be arrested before 2027?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，John Brennan 以壓倒性的 2,650% 獲勝機率主導市場；Mahmoud Khalil 以 1,700% 位居第二，Susan Rice 以 1,200% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $435.9K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• John Brennan (2,650%)：John Brennan 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 2,650¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $25.8K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Mahmoud Khalil (1,700%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Mahmoud Khalil 保持著 1,700% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 1,700¢。
• Susan Rice (1,200%)：以 1,200% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Susan Rice 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 James Clapper (1,150%)、Lee Jun-seok (1,095%)，以及 Brandon Johnson (950%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Anthony Fauci 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:

* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)

* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant

* Being formally booked or processed following detention

* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station

* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney

* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention

* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed

* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)

* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest

* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.