Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?

$129.9K Vol
2028年1月1日
Active
機率趨勢
Andy Beshear 87.7%
Ted Cruz 82.5%
Pete Buttigieg 79.5%
Gavin Newsom 76.5%
J.D. Vance 75.4%

核心摘要

根據「Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Andy Beshear 以壓倒性的 87.7% 獲勝機率主導市場；Ted Cruz 以 82.5% 位居第二，Pete Buttigieg 以 79.5% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $129.9K，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • Andy Beshear (87.7%)：Andy Beshear 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 88¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $1.3K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

  • Ted Cruz (82.5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Ted Cruz 保持著 82.5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 83¢。
  • Pete Buttigieg (79.5%)：以 79.5% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Pete Buttigieg 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

  • 替代選項：包括 Gavin Newsom (76.5%)、J.D. Vance (75.4%)，以及 Josh Shapiro (68.5%)。
  • 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Ron DeSantis 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
1Andy Beshear87.7%$1.3K88¢12¢
2Ted Cruz82.5%$6.0K83¢18¢
3Pete Buttigieg79.5%$2.7K80¢21¢
4Gavin Newsom76.5%$6.5K77¢24¢
5J.D. Vance75.4%$5.1K75¢25¢
6Josh Shapiro68.5%$94669¢32¢
7Ron DeSantis65.5%$56366¢35¢
8Rahm Emanuel64.0%$1.6K64¢36¢
9Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez63.0%$7.2K63¢37¢
10Cory Booker59.5%$2.4K60¢41¢
11Mark Kelly58.0%$54758¢42¢
12Brian Kemp55.0%$45055¢45¢
13J.B. Pritzker54.5%$1.6K55¢45¢
14Rand Paul53.5%$46254¢47¢
15Wes Moore51.5%$22052¢49¢
16Kamala Harris51.5%$5.6K52¢49¢
17Andrew Yang51.0%$3.8K51¢49¢
18Raphael Warnock49.0%$90849¢51¢
19Jon Ossoff44.0%$4.1K44¢56¢
20Marco Rubio42.5%$3.2K43¢58¢
21Phil Murphy41.0%$1.5K41¢59¢
22Katie Britt38.0%$2038¢62¢
23Jared Polis37.0%$8037¢63¢
24Hunter Biden35.5%$5.5K36¢65¢
25Josh Hawley35.0%$5.0K35¢65¢
26Gina Raimondo33.5%$2.1K34¢67¢
27Glenn Youngkin33.5%$65834¢67¢
28Gretchen Whitmer31.5%$96632¢69¢
29Steve Bannon28.5%$2.5K28¢72¢
30Marjorie Taylor Greene25.5%$49226¢75¢
31Nikki Haley24.5%$36125¢76¢
32Elise Stefanik24.5%$8025¢76¢
33Vivek Ramaswamy23.5%$25224¢77¢
34Byron Donalds23.5%$9424¢77¢
35Don Lemon22.5%$4023¢78¢
36Stephen A. Smith19.0%$1.1K19¢81¢
37Tulsi Gabbard19.0%$94519¢81¢
38Mark Cuban18.5%$32519¢82¢
39Matt Gaetz17.5%$35818¢83¢
40John Fetterman17.0%$3.2K17¢83¢
41Jon Stewart17.0%$1.9K17¢83¢
42Tucker Carlson17.0%$4.2K17¢83¢
43Kristi Noem16.5%$8017¢84¢
44Mike Pence16.0%$67016¢84¢
45Michelle Obama15.5%$1.4K16¢85¢
46Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson15.5%$99016¢85¢
47Robert F. Kennedy Jr.15.5%$1.1K16¢85¢
48Candace Owens15.5%$46016¢85¢
49John Thune15.0%$20315¢85¢
50Liz Cheney14.0%$1.8K14¢86¢
51George Clooney12.8%$1.5K13¢87¢
52Oprah Winfrey12.5%$3713¢88¢
53Donald Trump12.5%$10013¢88¢
54Elon Musk12.5%$2.6K13¢88¢
55Kim Kardashian12.0%$5.3K12¢88¢
56Bernie Sanders11.5%$2.4K12¢89¢
57Beto O’Rourke11.5%$2012¢89¢
58Donald Trump Jr.11.5%$2.7K12¢89¢
59LeBron James10.8%$27711¢89¢
60Chelsea Clinton10.5%$12511¢89¢
61Tom Brady9.5%$1.2K10¢91¢
62Zohran Mamdani9.0%$2.8K9¢91¢
63MrBeast8.5%$1.9K9¢92¢
64Tim Walz8.0%$5.3K8¢92¢
65Ivanka Trump6.9%$3897¢93¢
66Erika Kirk6.0%$4.5K6¢94¢
67Hillary Clinton3.7%$4.6K4¢96¢
68Barack Obama2.4%$6282¢98¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

  • 最被高估的結果：Katie Britt 當前交易價為 38%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 16.2%，形成 -21.8% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
  • 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 Kristi Noem 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 16.5% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 44.6%——形成可觀的 +28.1% EV 差。
  • 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 George Clooney（EV 差：+23.5%）以及 Elon Musk（EV 差：+21.4%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Andy Beshear87.7%78.0%-9.7%
Ted Cruz82.5%83.3%+0.8%
Pete Buttigieg79.5%72.3%-7.2%
Gavin Newsom76.5%74.6%-1.9%
J.D. Vance75.4%83.0%+7.6%
Josh Shapiro68.5%56.0%-12.5%
Ron DeSantis65.5%84.1%+18.6%
Rahm Emanuel64.0%60.2%-3.8%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez63.0%54.4%-8.6%
Cory Booker59.5%53.8%-5.7%
Mark Kelly58.0%59.0%+1.0%
Brian Kemp55.0%37.1%-17.9%
J.B. Pritzker54.5%47.3%-7.2%
Rand Paul53.5%38.0%-15.5%
Wes Moore51.5%49.5%-2.0%
Kamala Harris51.5%51.3%-0.2%
Andrew Yang51.0%45.7%-5.3%
Raphael Warnock49.0%49.1%+0.1%
Jon Ossoff44.0%48.6%+4.6%
Marco Rubio42.5%39.6%-2.9%
Phil Murphy41.0%39.3%-1.7%
Katie Britt38.0%16.2%-21.8%
Jared Polis37.0%26.3%-10.7%
Hunter Biden35.5%32.1%-3.4%
Josh Hawley35.0%31.5%-3.5%
Gina Raimondo33.5%15.8%-17.7%
Glenn Youngkin33.5%25.6%-7.9%
Gretchen Whitmer31.5%47.7%+16.2%
Steve Bannon28.5%13.8%-14.7%
Marjorie Taylor Greene25.5%16.2%-9.3%
Nikki Haley24.5%31.4%+6.9%
Elise Stefanik24.5%32.6%+8.1%
Vivek Ramaswamy23.5%21.1%-2.4%
Byron Donalds23.5%23.3%-0.2%
Don Lemon22.5%22.0%-0.5%
Stephen A. Smith19.0%4.7%-14.3%
Tulsi Gabbard19.0%19.4%+0.4%
Mark Cuban18.5%13.3%-5.2%
Matt Gaetz17.5%35.9%+18.4%
John Fetterman17.0%22.7%+5.7%
Jon Stewart17.0%11.9%-5.1%
Tucker Carlson17.0%10.6%-6.4%
Kristi NoemBest EV16.5%44.6%+28.1%
Mike Pence16.0%10.6%-5.4%
Michelle Obama15.5%18.9%+3.5%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson15.5%13.2%-2.3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.15.5%8.7%-6.8%
Candace Owens15.5%24.1%+8.6%
John Thune15.0%10.8%-4.1%
Liz Cheney14.0%9.6%-4.4%
George Clooney12.8%36.3%+23.5%
Oprah Winfrey12.5%11.2%-1.3%
Donald Trump12.5%8.5%-4.0%
Elon Musk12.5%33.9%+21.4%
Kim Kardashian12.0%10.4%-1.6%
Bernie Sanders11.5%20.0%+8.5%
Beto O’Rourke11.5%5.3%-6.2%
Donald Trump Jr.11.5%20.3%+8.8%
LeBron James10.8%3.3%-7.5%
Chelsea Clinton10.5%3.6%-6.9%
Tom Brady9.5%10.0%+0.5%
Zohran Mamdani9.0%12.5%+3.5%
MrBeast8.5%9.8%+1.3%
Tim Walz8.0%7.2%-0.8%
Ivanka Trump6.9%7.0%+0.2%
Erika Kirk6.0%5.7%-0.3%
Hillary Clinton3.7%13.9%+10.2%
Barack Obama2.4%3.9%+1.5%

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Oct 25, 2026

  • 07:58 PM
    AJAJSV
    $5.54

    Bought 10.862746 Yes for Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2028? at 0.51

  • 07:12 PM
    SAsasha585
    $3.88

    Bought 7.76 No for Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2028? at 0.5

  • 06:56 PM
    AJAJSV
    $12.50

    Bought 25 No for Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2028? at 0.5

  • 06:27 PM
    AJAJSV
    $18.80

    Bought 40 No for Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2028? at 0.47

  • 06:00 PM
    JAjakemlts
    $3.25

    Sold 5 No for Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2028? at 0.65

  • 06:00 PM
    JAjakemlts
    $3.55

    Bought 5 No for Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2028? at 0.71

  • 05:55 PM
    AJAJSV
    $4.70

    Bought 10 Yes for Will Phil Murphy announce a Presidential run before 2028? at 0.47

  • 04:05 PM
    VOVolynMolfar
    $3.20

    Sold 5.81 Yes for Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2028? at 0.55

  • 03:57 PM
    AJAJSV
    $6.80

    Bought 20 No for Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028? at 0.34

  • 03:57 PM
    MAMajas
    $14.00

    Bought 20.289854 Yes for Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028? at 0.69

  • 03:57 PM
    OBobliq
    $13.60

    Bought 20 Yes for Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028? at 0.68

  • 03:57 PM
    AJAJSV
    $39.00

    Bought 60 Yes for Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028? at 0.65

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

MR1
MrMarket
事件損益
+$294.56
成交量
$8,040.15
持倉數
NoNoNo+24
AI2
AiBird
事件損益
-$44.21
成交量
$5,555.19
持倉數
YesYesYes+11
BE3
bernardbulletin
事件損益
+$73.23
成交量
$5,130.16
持倉數
YesYesYes+6
AJ4
AJSV
事件損益
-$24.73
成交量
$4,108.50
持倉數
NoYesNo+41
AL5
aliiz
事件損益
+$136.76
成交量
$4,029.70
持倉數
YesYesNo+26
CA6
Car
事件損益
+$75.86
成交量
$3,388.21
持倉數
NoNoNo+4
I27
i2dt
事件損益
+$44.06
成交量
$2,016.45
持倉數
NoNoNo+15
TH8
thecaricature
事件損益
-$22.10
成交量
$1,833.63
持倉數
NoYesYes+34

常見問題

目前市場對「Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，Andy Beshear 以 87.7% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Ted Cruz（82.5%），以及 Pete Buttigieg（79.5%）。該市場總成交量已達 $129.9K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？

即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。

目前哪個結果的期望值（EV）最高？

最新一輪測算顯示，Kristi Noem 是最顯著的錯誤定價。市場對其隱含機率僅給到 16.5%，而我們的 AI 測算其公允價值為 44.6%——形成 +28.1% 的期望值差，是該市場中最具價值的標的。

市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度？

是的——資料顯示市場對 Katie Britt 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 38%，但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 16.2%，形成 -21.8% 的負 EV 差，表明該合約被高估。

長尾資料中是否藏有高價值的黑馬選項？

當然有。除了頭部結果之外，我們的模型在排名靠後的選項中發現了被低估的潛力。George Clooney 擁有 +23.5% 的正 EV 差，Elon Musk 則為 +21.4%。儘管量化層面更有支撐，這些合約仍被即時訂單簿低估。

開始交易