Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?

根據「Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，J.D. Vance 以壓倒性的 8,995% 獲勝機率主導市場；Ted Cruz 以 8,750% 位居第二，Pete Buttigieg 以 8,550% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $68.2K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• J.D. Vance (8,995%)：J.D. Vance 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 8,995¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $1.6K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Ted Cruz (8,750%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Ted Cruz 保持著 8,750% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 8,750¢。
• Pete Buttigieg (8,550%)：以 8,550% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Pete Buttigieg 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Gavin Newsom (8,200%)、Ron DeSantis (8,000%)，以及 Andy Beshear (7,750%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Rahm Emanuel 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.