Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

根據「Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Mike Lee 以壓倒性的 5,000% 獲勝機率主導市場；Catherine Cortez Masto 以 5,000% 位居第二，Mark Warner 以 5,000% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Mike Lee (5,000%)：Mike Lee 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,000¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Catherine Cortez Masto (5,000%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Catherine Cortez Masto 保持著 5,000% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,000¢。
• Mark Warner (5,000%)：以 5,000% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Mark Warner 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Jerry Moran (5,000%)、Kirsten Gillibrand (5,000%)，以及 Lisa Blunt Rochester (5,000%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Ruben Gallego 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088

The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment.

This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote.

Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally.

This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).