Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?

根據「Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Democratic Party 以壓倒性的 91% 獲勝機率主導市場；Republican Party 以 6.5% 位居第二，Tie 以 2.4% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $116.9K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Democratic Party (91%)：Democratic Party 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 91¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $57.2K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Republican Party (6.5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Republican Party 保持著 6.5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 7¢。
• Tie (2.4%)：以 2.4% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Tie 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, that holds the most US governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

If the Republican Party and the Democratic Party hold the same number of governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections, this market will resolve to “Tie”.

This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

For governor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the governor was elected. If a governor-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the individual was elected.

For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current governor who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the governor was affiliated at the time of the election.

If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, and a consensus of credible reporting.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：Democratic Party 當前交易價為 91%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 89%，形成 -2% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 Tie 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 2.4% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 14.8%——形成可觀的 +12.5% EV 差。
• 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 Republican Party（EV 差：+2.6%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。