Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

根據「Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Likud 以壓倒性的 5,000% 獲勝機率主導市場；Shas 以 5,000% 位居第二，United Torah Judaism 以 5,000% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Likud (5,000%)：Likud 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,000¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Shas (5,000%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Shas 保持著 5,000% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,000¢。
• United Torah Judaism (5,000%)：以 5,000% 的機率位列第三，市場對 United Torah Judaism 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 RZP-Zehut (5,000%)、Otzma Yehudit (5,000%)，以及 Together (5,000%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Blue and White 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.