Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?

根據「Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Mariah Carey 以壓倒性的 89.5% 獲勝機率主導市場；Peso Pluma 以 63% 位居第二，Sabrina Carpenter 以 57.5% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $156.5K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Mariah Carey (89.5%)：Mariah Carey 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 90¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $1.9K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Peso Pluma (63%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Peso Pluma 保持著 63% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 63¢。
• Sabrina Carpenter (57.5%)：以 57.5% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Sabrina Carpenter 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Post Malone (53.5%)、Morgan Wallen (53%)，以及 Rihanna (52.7%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Lil Baby 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart.

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026.

Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：Peso Pluma 當前交易價為 63%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 7.1%，形成 -55.9% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 SZA 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 21% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 64.3%——形成可觀的 +43.3% EV 差。
• 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 Travis Scott（EV 差：+12.6%）以及 A$AP Rocky（EV 差：+12.2%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。