Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?

根據「Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，June 30, 2027 以壓倒性的 38% 獲勝機率主導市場；December 31, 2026 以 20.3% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $114.3K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• June 30, 2027 (38%)：June 30, 2027 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 38¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $11.6K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• December 31, 2026 (20.3%)：作為最可行的替代選項，December 31, 2026 保持著 20.3% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 20¢。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:

* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)

* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant

* Being formally booked or processed following detention

* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station

* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney

* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention

* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed

* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest

* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：December 31, 2026 當前交易價為 20.3%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 19.3%，形成 -1% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 June 30, 2027 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 38% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 45.3%——形成可觀的 +7.3% EV 差。